\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 529 Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) )
The company released 21fy and 22q1 results. The revenue of 21fy company is 3.88 billion, yoy + 13.1%, of which 21q4 revenue is 1.07 billion, yoy-4.1% (13.2% compared with 19q4cagr) and QoQ + 7.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21fy is 590 million, yoy + 4.7%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is 120 million, yoy-19.1%, qoq-28.0%. 22q1 company’s revenue is 1.04 billion, yoy + 12.5%, qoq-2.6%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 150 million, yoy-1.9%, QoQ + 26.2%. The results of 21fy and 22q1 were slightly lower than the previous expectations, reflecting the unexpected cost changes and the phased impact of the epidemic. At the same time, the statements also verified the clearer growth logic and fundamental changes, which should be paid attention to.
Rising costs have squeezed profitability for 21 years, and the 22q1 epidemic has also had a certain incremental negative impact
In terms of business, 21fy’s molded bottles / brown bottles / butyl rubber stopper series / tube bottles / ampoules / plastic bottles with aluminum plastic caps / other revenues were 1.53/8.0/2.0/0.5/0.5/1.02 billion, yoy respectively + 9% / 6% / 9% / 12% / 6% / 6% / 30%. The sales volume of boron silicon materials in molded bottles has nearly doubled; It is speculated that plastic bottles with aluminum plastic caps are inclined to small specifications, with 21fy sales of yoy + 20%; The high growth of other businesses is speculated that the core is due to the release of pre potting incremental production capacity, and the sales volume of 21fy pre potting is yoy + 145% to nearly 50 million. 22q1 revenue decreased slightly month on month. It is speculated that the main reason is that the epidemic has affected logistics and dragged down sales since 21 / 03, ASP has improved (21q4 company has successfully promoted upward price adjustment) and the large volume of medium borosilicate molded bottles has supported the income level. The average price of 21fy molded bottle / brown bottle per ton yoy is + 2% / 2% respectively; Butyl rubber stopper series / tube bottle / ampoule / plastic bottle with aluminum plastic cap, the average price yoy is + 5% / 6% / 4% / – 11% respectively.
21fy company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 29.6%, yoy-4.0pct; Among them, 21q4 is 29.4%, QoQ + 1.0pct. 22q1 is 29.2%, qoq-0.2pct. In terms of business, the gross profit margin of 21fy molded bottle / brown bottle / butyl rubber stopper series / tube bottle / ampoule / plastic bottle with aluminum plastic cover / other business is 40% / 26% / 28% / 13% / 2% / 31% / 21% respectively, yoy respectively – 5 / – 7 / – 3 / + 2 / + 0 / + 4 / – 1PCT. Shipping costs and raw fuel prices rose in turn, squeezing the company’s 21fy profitability, and the pressure increased quarter by quarter; The 22q1 epidemic has a further negative impact on the delivery rhythm and logistics cost (the inventory level at the end of 22q1 has increased, the sales cost has increased, and the gross profit margin has not improved significantly month on month). We judge 21fy and 22h1 as the relatively difficult stage of the company’s income statement, and the subsequent pressure is gradually relieved.
The medium borosilicate molded bottle welcomes the volume, and the upward price adjustment shows the voice of the company, 22fy or welcomes the inflection point of fundamentals
21h2 company has put into operation three new kilns for medium borosilicate molding bottles, which has ushered in a rapid increase in production capacity and booming supply and demand. Before and after the end of 21fy, the production capacity of borosilicate molded bottles in the company may be close to 1 billion, and the capacity expansion is still continuing. Benefiting from the high demand of downstream (high growth of biological agents, rapid promotion of consistency evaluation, etc.), we think there is no need to pay too much attention to the sales pressure in the short term. 21q4 company has successfully promoted the upward price adjustment, and the 22q1 effect has been reflected. We judge that the gradual decline of subsequent costs is a high probability event, and the profit margin may have a certain upward elasticity. In addition, it is also suggested to pay attention to the incremental performance contribution brought by the gradual release of pre potting incremental capacity.
22 years may be a new starting point for the company’s growth and maintain the “buy” rating
The company has no interest bearing liabilities, its balance sheet is simple and of high quality, and its strong cash flow reflects its excellent business model and strong position in the industrial chain. The company’s experience of growing into a leader in molded bottles has verified the excellent business ability of the management. The rapid growth of new products such as medium borosilicate molded bottles and pre potting has injected new vitality into the company’s growth. Considering the upward shift of the cost center and the faster release rhythm of the production capacity of medium borosilicate molded bottles, the company adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 to 870 / 1070 million (the previous value was 8500 / 1120 million), increased the 24-year forecast to 1.27 billion, and + 46% / 24% / 19% in 22-24 years yoy respectively. The company was recognized as the 22-year 25X target PE, slightly lowered the target price of the company to 36.40 yuan (the previous value was 41.82 yuan), and continued to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: cost fluctuation; The launch and sales of new production capacity are lower than expected; Deterioration of foreign trade environment, etc
