\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 472 Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.13%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 326 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 536.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent after deduction of non-profit of 288 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 659645%.
Comments:
The scale effect continued to appear, and the profitability improved steadily. On the revenue side, the company’s revenue in 2021 was 5.391 billion yuan, an increase of 47.13% at the same time. Quarterly, the revenue growth rate of 2021q1-q4 was 103.02%, 63.89%, 44.70% and 10.03% respectively. In the second half of last year, the sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles fell year-on-year, resulting in a slowdown in the growth rate of the company’s revenue side; On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 326 million in 2021, an increase of 536.98% at the same time. The growth rate of Q1-Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was 347.70%, 233.18%, 626.37% and 173.31% respectively. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 19.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.16pct, and the net profit margin was 6.57%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.37pct. Under the background of the rise in the price of raw materials, the profitability of the company rebounded sharply, mainly due to the gradual release of early input capacity and the gradual emergence of scale effect. In 2021, the sales expense rate was 1.30%, decreased by 1.76 PCT, the management expense rate was 4.25%, increased by 0.65 PCT, the financial expense rate was 2.31%, decreased by 1.94 PCT, the R & D expense rate was 3.97%, increased by 0.16 PCT, the R & D investment continued to increase, and the competitiveness of the company continued to consolidate.
The gear business of new energy vehicles maintained high growth and benefited from the electrification trend in the medium and long term. The company’s customers have covered the world’s leading electric vehicle enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC and other key new energy vehicle enterprises and electric drive manufacturers. In 2021, the company sold 5031400 new energy vehicle gears (including electric vehicle gears and hybrid vehicle gears), driving the revenue of passenger vehicle gear segment to reach 2.439 billion, an increase of 57.08%. At present, there are still abundant orders. By the end of 2021, the company’s new energy vehicle gear business has reached about 1.64 billion orders and intentional contracts in 2022. In addition, the company has made breakthroughs in overseas markets. In 2021, the company obtained the new energy vehicle drive system gear project directly exported to Europe for the first time, and reached supply cooperation with PPET. The cooperation project will be officially put into operation in Q4 of 2022, and supply will begin in 2023. By 2024, the company will reach the peak annual output and continue to 2028. According to the price and supply volume agreed in the agreement, the total sales volume in the life cycle of the agreement (from 2022 to 2028) is expected to be about 3.554 billion yuan. We believe that benefiting from the electrification trend, the market-oriented scale of passenger car gears continues to expand, and the company has outstanding competitive advantages in high-end gear design, processing and large-scale production. It is expected to fully benefit from the electrification trend and achieve the continuous improvement of market share.
AMT business of heavy truck contributes new increment, and RV Reducer continues to expand. In 2021, the company’s commercial vehicle gear business revenue was 786 million, an increase of 15.43% and the gross profit margin was 18.81%, an increase of 0.09pct. In 2021, the company’s commercial vehicle growth rate was lower than that of other sectors, mainly due to the decline in commercial vehicle sales after the second half of last year. However, in the medium and long term, the company’s commercial vehicle gear business will benefit from the increase of AMT penetration rate of heavy trucks. AMT automatic transmission has the advantages of low noise, light weight and fuel saving. It is suitable for the implementation of national six and is expected to accelerate the improvement of AMT automatic transmission penetration. At present, the penetration rate of AMT automatic transmission for heavy trucks in China is less than 10%, which has great room for improvement compared with 80% in Europe and America. The company actively distributes the gear business of AMT automatic transmission of commercial vehicles. With the in-depth cooperation with ZF, the leader of automatic transmission, the company continues to enhance its competitiveness, and heavy truck AMT is expected to become a new growth point. In addition, the company deepened the layout of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) reducer sector, and has gradually realized the full coverage of precision reducer required by 6-1000kg industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) reducer. In 2021, the business income of reducer was 267 million, an increase of 29.87%. Construction machinery, electric tools and other sectors also have long-term accumulation. In the future, with the further promotion of the strategy, the business growth is expected to increase.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 472 million yuan, 694 million yuan and 910 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.61 yuan / share, 0.89 yuan / share and 1.17 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to 27 times, 19 times and 14 times of the current share price PE respectively. Maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk factors: car sales decline; The demand for pure electric gears is less than expected; RV Reducer expansion was less than expected.
