\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
The market-oriented reform accelerated significantly, with both growth and certainty, and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2022q1, the revenue was 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.4%, and the net profit was 17.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.6%, which was better than expected. We maintained the profit forecast for 20222024, and expected the net profit for 20222024 to be 62.03 billion yuan, 72.69 billion yuan and 84.04 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 49.38 yuan, 57.86 yuan and 66.90 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 35.1, 29.9 and 25.9 times respectively. In the past, the company has cultivated loyal consumer fans and accumulated sufficient channel price difference. Even in the face of uncertain consumer environment and macro environment, it can ensure the certainty and growth of its performance and maintain the “buy” rating.
Channel reform + product structure improvement, Maotai liquor grew at a high speed
Maotai liquor achieved a revenue of 28.86 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, much higher than the growth rate of 10.2% in 2021. On the one hand, it mainly comes from the sufficient production capacity of base liquor and the increase of market investment. In addition, more importantly, the proportion of direct marketing channels is increased, the product quota is inclined to the price band above Feitian, and the price of some non-standard products is increased. The revenue of series liquor was 3.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.7%, mainly from the optimization of the product structure of series liquor and the launch of a new thousand yuan Maotai 1935.
Channel reform was significantly accelerated, and the proportion of direct sales increased significantly
Direct sales revenue reached 10.89 billion yuan, up + 127.9% year-on-year, accounting for + 16.2pct to 33.7%, a record high. 2B direct sales channels such as Shangchao are expected to change little. The sharp increase is due to the rapid rise of 2C group purchase channels and some non-standard channels of dealers from self operated stores; Wholesale revenue was 21.4 billion yuan, up – 4.7% year-on-year, accounting for – 16.2pct to 66.3% year-on-year. The e-commerce platform was launched at the end of March, and the proportion of direct sales will further increase in the future.
The gross profit margin increased, the period expense rate decreased, and the net profit margin increased significantly
Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of direct sales and the optimization of product structure, the gross profit margin in 2022q1 is + 0.66pct to 92.37%. Except for the promotion of individual new products, the company basically does not need to increase the cost investment for the growth of its revenue, with obvious scale effect. The cost rate during the period is – 0.84pct to 7.08%, and the tax and surcharges / sales cost rate / management cost rate / R & D cost rate / financial cost rate are 13.07% / 1.60% / 6.43% / 0.06% / – 1.01% respectively, Respectively -0.57pct / – 0.42pct / + 0.09pct / + 0.02pct / – 0.53pct year-on-year. 2022q1 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) net profit margin increased by 1.42ct to 55.59%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
