\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
The performance is in line with expectations. The company released the results of the first quarter of 2022, and achieved a revenue of 41.78 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 33.4% year-on-year and 9.3% month on month; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 5.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8% and a month on month increase of 5.2%. The gross profit margin of the company's single quarter sales in the first quarter was 20.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6pcts and a month on month increase of 3.5pcts; The net profit margin on sales was 13.2%, down 8.3pcts year-on-year and 0.3pcts month on month.
Key points supporting rating
Petrochemical and new material products continue to be sold in large quantities, and the rise in the price of raw materials affects profitability. In terms of business, in the first quarter of 2022, the company's polyurethane series achieved a revenue of 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month on month decrease of 4.6%; The sales volume of polyurethane products increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the price increased by 10.6% year-on-year. The second piece of petrochemical products achieved a revenue of 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.9% and a month on month increase of 0.4%. The sales volume of petrochemical products increased by 22.7% year-on-year. The third fine chemicals and new materials series achieved a revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.0%, a month on month increase of 8.7%, a year-on-year increase of 27.7% in product sales and a year-on-year increase of 31.6% in price. In the first quarter of 2022, the price of the company's main raw materials increased significantly year-on-year. The average price of propane CP was US $803 / ton, up 35% year-on-year; The average price of butane CP was US $802 / ton, up 41% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the sales volume of petrochemical and new material products of the company increased significantly, while the average price increase of products was less than that of raw materials, and the profit fell somewhat.
MDI prices remained high, and the prices of some coal and petrochemical products fell. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 26, the aggregate MDI (Wanhua, Yantai, East China) closed at 18700 yuan / ton, which was in the quantile of 61.2% of the historical price. The weekly average price increased by 1.71% and has decreased by 8.33% since the beginning of the year; Pure MDI (East China) closed at 21500 yuan / ton, which was in the quantile of 55.9% of the historical price. The weekly average price decreased by 1.7% and has increased by 3.37% since the beginning of the year; TDI (East China) closed at 17400 yuan / ton, which was in the quantile of 31.2% of the historical price. The weekly average price was flat, with an increase of 13.36% year to date. In terms of coal and petrochemical products, Qinhuangdao 5500 closed at 1160 yuan / ton, down 17.1% from the end of March, and the prices of propane, butane and aniline also fell to varying degrees. With the easing of the epidemic and the steady recovery of downstream demand, the profitability of the company is expected to rebound.
Valuation
The performance meets the expectation and maintains the profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.2 yuan, 8.9 yuan and 10.4 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding PE is 9.4 times, 8.7 times and 7.4 times. We are optimistic about the company's excellent cost control and operation ability, as well as continuous technological innovation, and maintain the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The project progress did not meet expectations. Crude oil prices fluctuated sharply. The duration and impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
