\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 24 Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) )
Key investment points
Event: the company's revenue in 2021 was 5.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.80%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.16%; Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 1.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.61% and a month on month increase of 16.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.69%. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 1.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 273 million, with a year-on-year increase of 29.26% and a month on month increase of 131.67%.
Comments:
\u3000\u30001. The operating performance is growing steadily, and the gross profit margin of the company is expected to rise: in 2021, the attention of the photovoltaic industry around the technological transformation of cost reduction and efficiency increase is increasing, the development direction of battery technology is unclear, and the pace of production expansion of downstream manufacturers is delayed. At the same time, due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry, the silicon price rises sharply, and the payment collection and equipment acceptance of the company are affected, which has an adverse impact on the performance of the company. In this context, the company's performance has grown steadily, which fully reflects the company's pressure resistance. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's profit was repaired and the gross profit margin increased; According to the needs of customers, the company has launched new products in all kinds of equipment. In the future, with the continuous volume of new products, the gross profit margin of the company is expected to rise.
\u3000\u30002. Take the customer demand as the core and comprehensively layout the technical route of the battery: as the shovel seller, the battery equipment supplier does not directly determine the technical route of the battery and the route choice of the battery manufacturer. As an equipment manufacturer, the most important thing is to launch equipment that meets the market demand according to the market demand and be a good helper for battery manufacturers. On the technical route of TOPCON, the company has the ability to deliver the whole line of equipment, the core equipment PE poly and boron diffusion equipment have been successfully delivered to customers for mass production and operation, and the LPCVD equipment has also been verified at the client. On the hjt route, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) established a pilot test line of hjt in Changzhou jiejiachuang, its subsidiary. All process equipment and automation equipment of the project are independently developed by the company.
\u3000\u30003. Battery chip equipment is in a transitional period, and the expansion of production is expected to accelerate this year: at present, due to the change of silicon chip size, the proportion of 158.75mm and 166mm size will reach 50% in 2021, and the proportion of 156.75mm size will drop to 5%; 166mm is the largest size scheme that can be upgraded for the existing battery production line, so it is a transitional size in recent two years. In 2021, the total proportion of 182mm and 210mm sizes will increase rapidly from 4.5% in 2020 to 45%, and its proportion will continue to expand rapidly in the future. In 2021, it is mainly because the technology upgrading route of the battery has not been determined, and the major battery manufacturers maintain a more cautious attitude towards equipment upgrading. In the future, with the clarification of the route of the next generation of battery, the battery is expected to usher in a wave of upgrading.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.537 billion yuan, 8.380 billion yuan and 10.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 29.51%, 28.21% and 24.10%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 954 million yuan, 1.267 billion yuan and 1.544 billion yuan respectively. Maintain the company's "buy-b" investment rating.
Risk tips: the risk of declining photovoltaic installation, the risk of intensified market competition, the cost reduction of hjt equipment is less than expected, the expansion of cell production is less than expected, and the risk of reduction of holdings by persons acting in concert.
