\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 208 Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) )
Key investment points
Excluding the impact of exchange rate, freight and raw material cost, the company’s performance returns to a high level
(1) compared with the same exchange rate in 2020, the appreciation of RMB led to a decrease of 128 million yuan in revenue in 2021 and a year-on-year decrease of 2.27% in gross profit margin; (2) The international freight will increase the cost by 607405 million yuan in 2021 compared with that in 2020, and reduce the gross profit margin by 2.70%; (3) The increase of spot cost will increase the cost by 304055 million yuan in 2021 compared with that in 2020, and reduce the gross profit margin by 1.35%. (4) Excluding the above uncontrollable factors, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 63.75%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 668 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.19%.
TPMS / software cloud / ADAS / battery detection and other high growth, accounting for 61.83% of the revenue in the European and American markets. The company includes five categories of products, including automotive intelligent diagnosis, TPMS, ADAS, software cloud services and other products. The sales regions cover China, North America, Europe and other regions. (1) The revenue of TPMS products increased by 51.30% year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of product competitiveness and the continuous improvement of product recognition and brand image in the automotive aftermarket; (2) The revenue of software cloud services increased by 44.42% year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous growth of the company’s ownership of intelligent diagnostic products and the further release of the demand for software upgrading; (3) The revenue of ADAS increased by 105.46% year-on-year, mainly because the company increased the promotion of ADAS products and achieved a rapid increase in sales revenue by virtue of its own performance and first mover advantages; (4) The operating revenue of other products increased by 123.68% year-on-year, mainly due to the sales breakthrough of newly listed battery testing products; (5) The revenue of automobile comprehensive diagnostic products increased by 28.64% year-on-year, maintaining stability; (6) The North American market achieved rapid growth due to ADAS products, software cloud services and other products, with a year-on-year increase of 50.23%. The European market achieved rapid growth due to ADAS products, Automotive comprehensive diagnostic products and TPMS products, with a year-on-year increase of 52.23%. The revenue of European and American markets accounted for 61.83% of the company’s total revenue in 2021.
Continue to increase R & D investment and comply with the “three modernizations” trend of the automotive aftermarket
The company attaches great importance to the development trend of digitalization, new energy and intelligence in the automotive industry, and continues to increase R & D investment. In 2021, the company invested 523 million yuan in R & D, with a year-on-year increase of 84.10%. R & D investment accounted for 23.19% of operating revenue, an increase of 5.20 percentage points. In terms of digitization, the company digitizes the maintenance scene, constructs a digital intelligent terminal ecology, and provides intelligent maintenance solutions. In terms of new energy, first, continue to expand the coverage of comprehensive diagnostic products for new energy models. At present, more than 1000 new energy models have been covered; Second, the layout of ultraev series covers a complete new energy tool chain products of diagnosis, detection and maintenance, which can be compatible with more than 90% of mainstream new energy models and support more than 40 special battery inspections; Third, in 2021, the company launched the maxicharger series of exchange pile products that have passed the European standard test and certification. This series of products successively received orders from Britain, Singapore and other countries and gradually delivered them. In terms of intelligence, the company has set up a 100 person senior driving assistance R & D team to continuously invest in millimeter wave radar and other products and technologies. At present, the company’s lateral millimeter wave radar and turnassist steering assistance solutions have passed the technical standard of truck blind spot monitoring system unr151 published by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). At present, few manufacturers can pass this standard.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company’s revenue maintained a high growth and its strategic investment continued to increase. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 545 million yuan, 719 million yuan and 914 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.33%, 31.78% and 27.11%; The corresponding EPS is 1.21, 1.59 and 2.03 yuan / share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Semiconductor shortage risk; The epidemic situation in Vietnam affects production; Technology iteration and customer expansion were not as expected.
