\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 831 Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) )
Key investment points
Consumer electronics remained stable, and new businesses in tobacco, alcohol and environmental protection performed well
Categories: (1) 21a consumer electronics 9.4 billion (+ 7.7%), including Xiaomi (+ 23.9%) and oppo (+ 75.3%); Liquor bag 1.33 billion (+ 70.6%), including Maotai (+ 104.0%) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (+ 70.6%); There are 880 million cigarette packs (+ 59.7%), 690 million environmental packaging (+ 64.9%), and new businesses such as tobacco, alcohol and environmental protection continue to develop with a beautiful growth rate. (2) 22q1 consumer electronics 2.2 billion (+ 18.1%), wine bags 370 million (+ 30.3%), cigarette bags 150 million (- 6.8%), environmental protection packaging 220 million (+ 90%), of which the decline in cigarette bag revenue is due to the delay in order delivery caused by the relocation of cigarette bag factory. Looking forward to the whole year, the company will obtain new product orders from customer a and increase its share. Consumer electronics will still maintain steady growth, and tobacco, alcohol and environmental protection packaging will still maintain bright growth under the company’s manufacturing + service advantage.
The expense rate is well controlled, and the exchange & capacity utilization affects the profit performance
(1) the gross profit margin of 21a is 21.54% (-5.29pct), mainly due to the appreciation of RMB, the impact of the epidemic and the decline of Q4 capacity utilization; The period cost rate is 13.10% (-2.48pct). 21a operating cash flow was 1.168 billion, an increase of 165 million year-on-year. The gross profit margin of 21q4 was 21.16% (-4.04pct), mainly due to the appreciation of RMB (year-on-year – 3.58%), the climbing of Xuchang factory and the shortage of raw materials of customer a, resulting in the delay of orders and the decline of capacity utilization; During the period, the expense rate was 11.20% (- 1.96 PCT), and the operating cash flow was 578 million yuan, an increase of 359 million yuan year-on-year. (2) 22q1 gross profit margin is 20.81% (-3.06pct), which is mainly affected by RMB appreciation (- 2.01%) and customer price reduction, and the period expense rate is 12.86% (-3.80pct); The operating cash flow was 368 million yuan, an increase of 355 million yuan year-on-year.
The turning point of profit margin is approaching, and the barriers are deep. It is expected to integrate packaging services on a platform
Multiple adverse factors are resolved, and the turning point of the company’s profit margin is approaching. 1) On the cost side, the margin of the price of base paper, the company’s main raw material, weakened after experiencing a rapid rise last year. At the same time, the company strengthened exchange management to stabilize fluctuations; 2) At the capital expenditure end, the company’s production capacity layout is gradually improved, and the capital investment is gradually in the harvest period. At the same time, the construction of intelligent factories is continuously promoted, and automation helps reduce costs; 3) At the business structure end, after years of full competition, the profit margin of 3C products has stabilized, and the proportion of high gross profit businesses such as tobacco and wine has increased. The company has significant advantages of “manufacturing + service”, and on this basis, it forms high customer stickiness, and the development of various businesses is expected to continue to deepen.
The extension integration widens the track and is expected to integrate comprehensive packaging services on a platform. The company’s extensive acquisition of Renhe intelligence, cutting into the emerging track of soft materials, relying on the high viscosity of existing customers, can help Renhe intelligence speed up the process of customer development and expand the scale of revenue. At the same time, the company will complement the production capacity in the field of soft materials through Renhe, and will play a platform role to provide comprehensive packaging services.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is the absolute leader of medium and high-end paper bags. Manufacturing + service has accumulated deep barriers, the business model continues to upgrade, and the turning point of profit margin is approaching. It is estimated that the revenue of 22-24 years is RMB 18.026 billion, 22.086 billion and 26.170 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.39%, 22.52% and 18.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 1.501 billion, 1.866 billion and 2.264 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 47.56%, 24.32% and 21.32%. The corresponding PE is 15.48x, 12.45x and 10.26x, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Raw materials rose, demand fell short of expectations, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
