\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 06 Beijing Strong Biotechnologies Inc(300406) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.599 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.58%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 406 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 261.29%, and a deduction of non net profit of 397 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230.46%; In 2022q1, the operating income was RMB 373 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%, the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 98.11 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53%, and the non net profit deducted was RMB 96.56 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.23%
The performance was lower than expected, and the epidemic repeatedly affected the short-term performance growth. In 2021, the company achieved rapid growth in revenue and profit, mainly due to the significant increase in scale brought by Maixin biological consolidated statement. After excluding Maixin consolidated statement, we expect the company's original biochemical hemagglutination business revenue to increase by more than 40% year-on-year, and achieve a compound growth of nearly 10% compared with 2019. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 381 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.76%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.92 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 285.23%, deducting non net profit of 96.56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.79%. The continuous high growth is mainly due to the expansion of the scope of consolidated statements brought by the company's further expansion of the shareholding ratio of Maixin in 21q4. After excluding Maixin consolidated statements in a single quarter, the traditional biochemical coagulation business is expected to increase by nearly 30% year-on-year, slower than, It is mainly negatively affected by the epidemic situation in some areas. The year-on-year decline in revenue and profit scale of 22q1 is mainly due to the continuous intensification of the epidemic in China, which further affects the number of terminal diagnosis and treatment. We expect that in the future, with the easing of the epidemic and the continuous increase in the proportion of high boom pathology business, the company is expected to accelerate its growth.
The strategic cooperation of Sinopharm is expected to continue to promote the share of biochemical market, and the hemagglutination products will enter the high-volume period. Since 2020, the company has introduced Sinopharm as the largest shareholder of the company, continuously promoted the strategic cooperation with Sinopharm and strengthened the company's marketing channels. In 2021, the company's reagent business achieved a revenue of 1.476 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 97.10%. After excluding Maixin's consolidated statement, the growth rate of conventional business has increased significantly compared with previous years, and the market share of biochemical products of the company is expected to continue to increase; In addition, the company's hemagglutination business has been integrated. Under the severe epidemic situation of 22q1, we expect to still achieve a rapid growth of more than 35%, and it is expected to continue the large-scale trend throughout the year.
Maixin's immunohistochemical business is expected to maintain a high boom under the rigid demand. In 2021, Maixin biological achieved a revenue of 601 million yuan and a net profit of 245 million yuan (the net profit promised by performance is 200 million yuan). The company has completed the acquisition of 30% minority equity of Maixin in October 2021, and the scope of consolidated statement has been further expanded. 22q1 epidemic has a negative impact on Maixin logistics. We expect the revenue growth rate to be about 10 +%. Considering that immunohistochemistry is mainly for tumor patients and the demand is rigid, with the adjustment of epidemic control, it is expected to accelerate the recovery in the future.
Profit forecast and Valuation: according to the data of the company's annual report and quarterly report and in combination with the current epidemic progress, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1877, 2331 and 2835 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, 24% and 22%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 541, 699 and 873 million, with a year-on-year increase of 33%, 29% and 25% (before the adjustment of 22-23 years, it will be RMB 629 and 790 million), and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 92, 1.19 and 1.48. Considering the upward trend of the company's biochemical and hemagglutination business, the pathological track continues to be in high prosperity and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: overseas cooperation fails to meet expectations, and the market promotion of new products fails to meet expectations.
