Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the market showed an inverted V-shaped pattern of rising and falling. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index fluctuated repeatedly, and then rose and strengthened. In the afternoon, the market situation suddenly changed, and the big finance hit the market, causing the index to plunge. The three stock indexes not only turned green, but also the Shanghai index fell below the integer mark of 2900 points.
As Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned, under the impact of the recent tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve, the severe epidemic situation in China and the increasing pressure on the performance of listed companies, the market has fallen sharply recently. The overall valuation of A-Shares is close to the historical low, and the sentiment may have fallen to the freezing point .
From a technical point of view, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the Shanghai Stock Index accelerated its adjustment after breaking 3000 points, and the short-term trend is still not optimistic, but the market is also brewing a rebound momentum, but the bear market does not say the end. This kind of rebound is more suitable for investors with stock covers to reduce costs. It still needs to be cautious to copy the bottom and build positions in the short term, pay attention to the support of the CSI 300 index near 3650, and there may be a rebound near here. If you are not sure about individual stocks, you can pay attention to the rebound opportunity of the Index ETF .
As far as the future is concerned, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the current stock index is in the stage of rapid decline, market risks are concentrated and released, panic continues to ferment, and OTC funds have a heavy mentality of holding money and waiting it is expected that the Shanghai stock index will continue to decline inertia before the emergence of new reversing variable factors. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital .
Guosheng Securities said that with the rapid decline in the early stage, the market pessimism has been greatly released. The index rose and fell on Tuesday, which also reflects the differences in funds market trading volume has shrunk significantly, the second bottom sounding action of the index may be coming to an end, and the bottom area has been obvious . In terms of operation, there is no need to be pessimistic about the current position, control the overall position and treat the current bottom decline rationally. Patiently wait for the opportunity of the market bottom rebound, and actively pay attention to the market trend and the introduction and implementation of policies.
The agency further analyzed that under the rapid rotation of the sector, the operation is very difficult. At this time, we should "use our brains and hands lazily" and wait for the market expectation to turn to the same again to regain investment confidence. Under the expectation of "steady growth" and counter cyclical regulation, various policies are being introduced continuously. As the vanguard of "steady growth", the infrastructure sector is constantly favorable. We can focus on tapping the potential layout opportunities of the infrastructure sector. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the current consumer sector is strongly suppressed, and we can pay attention to the recovery opportunities of the consumer sector in the later stage .
However, Wanhe Securities believes that China's economy is currently disturbed by the epidemic, and the downward pressure has increased significantly. Superimposed on the recent continuous depreciation of the RMB, the market risk appetite has continued to decline and the market pessimism has heated up. In the future, the current situation still needs to remain calm and wait-and-see to reduce the operation. There is no obvious turning signal in the market, or it may maintain the shock bottom seeking trend. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the starting point of steady growth policy . In terms of industry, we can pay attention to industries related to the stable growth chain, such as real estate, infrastructure, etc., as well as industries related to the post cycle of real estate.
It is noteworthy that where is the market after adjustment Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that the current overall market valuation has been at the bottom of history, but it is not the cheapest stage (different algorithms, there is about 5% - 10% space from the bottom of History). 1) From the perspective of overall valuation. At present, the PE valuation of Shanghai composite index is about 11.3 times, which is at the 19.1% quantile level since 2010 (the lower range than the current one is mainly in 20112014). 2) Structural valuation perspective. At present, most stocks in the market are at the absolute bottom of valuation.
In addition, what signal does the market need to stabilize the agency further analyzed that according to our framework of "abundant liquidity (currently satisfied) + credit stabilization (pessimistic expectation)", the key point still lies in the credit side. You need to see signals in two stages. Signal 1: the epidemic situation is initially controllable, epidemic prevention is eased, and the economy is back on track. Signal 2: steady growth policy relay, focusing on both new and old infrastructure + real estate, reversing credit expectations, especially the contribution of medium and long-term loans to sufficient credit increment. Quarterly level, or will see improvement.
In the macro aspect, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that the central bank has sufficient means to regulate the exchange rate, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is still controllable. The central bank still has sufficient policy tools to deal with the current round of excessive or excessive depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In addition to continuing to reduce the foreign exchange reserve ratio, it can also increase the use of counter cyclical factors, increase the recovery of liquidity in the offshore market, strengthen the control of cross-border capital flow, and guide the window of the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate security cushion is high and there are many tools to deal with foreign exchange depreciation. Therefore, the constraints on the space of subsequent monetary policy are relatively limited. We believe that in the process of further increasing economic pressure, the possibility of subsequent reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates still exists .
Focus on structural and focus on consumption and focus on structural and consumption and focus on structure and market . First, food and beverage, catering and tourism, hotels, automobiles, household appliances and other industries that have been fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation; Second, the rise in the prices of agricultural, animal husbandry and fishery products benefits from inflation; Third, pharmaceutical and biological products with low valuation.
