This week’s view
Salt lake group raised the ex factory price of potassium chloride. According to Baichuan information, the ex factory price of potassium chloride of Salt Lake Group is expected to rise in May. The ex factory price of 60% crystal powder of the benchmark product is 3980 yuan / ton, acceptance plus 50 yuan, and so on. It is expected to be implemented on May 1. At present, Russia and Belarus, the main overseas potash fertilizer suppliers, have reduced their exports due to force majeure, and the price of overseas potash fertilizer is high. China’s dependence on imported potash fertilizer is as high as 50%, and China’s price may continue to be affected by overseas price fluctuations. Suggested attention: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) .
The shortage of overseas natural gas supply continues to affect China’s leading enterprises. At present, the supply of overseas natural gas is tight and the price continues to rise. In the early stage, Huntsman and BASF issued a notice that due to the sharp rise in the price of natural gas, the price of relevant products will be adjusted. BASF said that if the current supply of natural gas is reduced to less than half of the demand, the operation of Ludwigshafen base will be completely stopped. With the cost increase of overseas high-cost chemicals, the cost curve of the industry will become steeper, which will support the cost of chemicals, and the price of chemicals in the tight balance between supply and demand is expected to rise; On the other hand, if some European chemical enterprises stop production due to natural gas shortage, it may lead to tight supply of chemicals and rising prices. Overall, the profitability of China’s low-cost leading enterprises is expected to increase. Suggestions: MDI, TDI, vitamins, urea, etc.
The export remains strong, and the supply and demand of soda ash is expected to maintain a boom. According to Baichuan information, in terms of demand, China’s soda ash export competitiveness has improved. In March, China’s soda ash export was 144000 tons (year-on-year + 53%, month on month + 71%), with a net export of 137000 tons. China’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity and the production and sales of new energy vehicles support the high growth in the demand for photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate downstream of soda ash; At present, the downstream float glass has a stable demand for soda ash, but under the background of “stable economic growth”, relevant economic support policies are gradually playing a role. It is expected that the demand for soda ash for float glass is not pessimistic. In terms of supply, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) alkali plant (1.3 million tons) withdrew at the end of 2021, and the new capacity this year is limited. Overall, under the tight supply and demand pattern in 2021, the supply and demand of soda ash will further tighten in 2022, and the high outlook of the industry is expected to be maintained. Suggested attention: Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) .
Supply and demand are tight, and TDI is expected to boom. According to Baichuan information, in terms of supply, it is expected that the production of Gansu Baiyin, Wanhua Fujian and Yantai Juli will continue to be limited in the short term; In addition, Shanghai BASF, kostron, Hanhua of South Korea and Mitsui of Japan have parking maintenance plans, and it is expected that there is little possibility of large-scale supply growth in the short term. In terms of demand, the subsequent downstream will drive the improvement of demand with the mitigation of the epidemic and the stimulation of the “steady growth” policy. On the whole, the current TDI supply increment is limited, the demand is expected to recover, and it is expected to usher in a boom in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) .
Pay attention to the supply side changes of phosphorus chemical industry. Phosphate rock: the accident led to the stoppage of local phosphate rock mining, and the supply of phosphate rock decreased again. At the end of March, an accident occurred at longdongwan Phosphate Mine in Yichang, the main origin of phosphate rock, resulting in the stoppage of phosphate mining in Yichang area. In April, the mining of phosphate rock in Hubei Province was stopped, and the industry supply decreased significantly. At present, it is the time of spring ploughing and fertilizer use in the south, and the price of phosphate rock is highly supportive.
Yellow phosphorus: Yunnan issued an orderly power restriction notice to pay attention to the production and power consumption of subsequent yellow phosphorus enterprises. In April, the Energy Bureau of Yunnan Province issued the “orderly power consumption plan of Yunnan Province in 2022”, which is to deal with the possible power load gap between power supply and demand this year, and clarify the policy requirements of orderly power consumption combined with industrial structure adjustment, energy conservation and emission reduction. The production of yellow phosphorus industry consumes a large amount of electricity. If the subsequent power rationing in Yunnan or affect the local yellow phosphorus production, the supply of the industry will decline. At present, the peak export season of pesticide products downstream of yellow phosphorus is coming, which will strongly support the demand for yellow phosphorus, and the high prosperity of the industry is expected to come again. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) .
Risk tip: the risk that the demand for chemical products does not meet expectations, the risk of sharp decline in international oil prices, and the risk of ineffective implementation of environmental protection.
