Yuanda: can the rebound at the bottom be interpreted as a reversal?

today's disk

In early trading today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. Affected by the macro positive news, the three indexes opened higher across the board. Despite some shocks, the overall rebound pattern was obvious. As of the issuance of the document, the three indexes were red across the board, of which the gem index rebounded by more than 2%.

In terms of industry sectors, unified market, tax exemption concept, tax rebate concept, Nanjing combination, Baijiu, Huawei Euler and other sectors led the increase; Textile and garment, coal industry, genetically modified, mining industry, chicken concept, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, chemical raw materials and other sectors led the decline. In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the number of gainers and losers accounted for 2200 respectively. The profit-making effect is general, but the mood is obviously more active than yesterday.

message interpretation

In order to improve the ability of financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds, the people's Bank of China has decided to reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point from May 15, 2022, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be reduced from the current 9% to 8%.

The central bank's move has released a certain positive signal. Increasing foreign exchange liquidity is intended to regulate the supply-demand relationship in the foreign exchange market and help stabilize the RMB exchange rate. This will help to reduce the depreciation expectation of RMB exchange rate, and the significance of policy signal release is very important. However, we can see that the reduction range is limited, which is a certain gap from 2021, which also shows that the central bank is relatively cautious, and reserves space for further reduction in the later stage. Later, you can continue to pay attention.

should on strategy and focus

Yesterday, the market squatted deeply and the demand for oversold rebound was obvious. In addition, the central bank's reduction of foreign exchange reserves was good for the market, which jointly promoted the rebound of today's index. On the whole, the market has fallen below 3000 points and 2900 points in a row in the past two days, but it remains unbroken. The market is already in the bottom building stage on the left. We can see from the reduction of volume and energy that the short sentiment has been released. After a substantial adjustment, we should pay more attention to the opportunities in the later stage. However, the specific operation should focus on stability, do not blindly copy the bottom, and patiently wait for the emergence of the signal on the right, such as whether some classic K-line reversal patterns can appear. At the same time, it is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of policy, which has certain guiding significance for the disk. On the whole, the bottom stage is obvious. The reversal is only a matter of time. The key is to wait patiently for the rainbow to appear.

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