On April 26, the stock index fell below 2900 points and finally closed at 288643 points.
In the overall downturn of the market, leading stocks in various industries fell sharply. "Yaomao" Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) . SH), "ningmao" Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ) fell 6.6% and 3.36% respectively, but "Youmao" Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) ( Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) . Sz) continued its rise after the limit on the 25th, closing up 1.8% on the 26th.
According to the analysis of CSI, recently Indonesia issued a palm oil export ban, which severely tightened the supply side, which led to the "contrarian" rise of A-share edible oil concept stocks, including Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) , Hainan Jingliang Holdings Co.Ltd(000505) and other vegetable oil stocks.
However, judging from the performance of the above companies, the net profit has declined seriously. People in the industry believe that in the face of rising raw material prices and limited consumer boost, the strategy of continuous price increase of edible oil enterprises has not been effective, so how long can the stock price rise against the trend last?
a "ban" pushed up the share price
Recently, Indonesia issued a ban on palm oil export, and palm oil futures prices rose again. A-share edible oil stocks rose continuously on the 25th and 26th, of which Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) , Daodaoquan Grain And Oil Co.Ltd(002852) limit and Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) soared by more than 6% on the 25th.
Palm oil is the largest vegetable oil variety in terms of production, consumption and international trade in the world. It is known as "the three largest vegetable oils in the world" together with soybean oil and rapeseed oil. At present, the world's palm oil producing areas are mainly Indonesia and Malaysia, of which Indonesia accounts for about 60% of the world's palm oil production.
Industry analysts said that Indonesia would restrict the export of palm oil, which also boosted the demand prospect of other vegetable oils. According to datayes statistics, Malaysian palm oil futures have risen 11% since April and nearly 35% during the year. The inventory did not increase but decreased, which continued to support the future price of palm oil. According to the data released by the Malaysian palm oil bureau, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil fell for five consecutive months at the end of March, the export growth exceeded expectations, and the import fell sharply, offsetting the increase in output.
It is worth mentioning that China's palm oil consumption is completely dependent on imports. It is the second largest importer of palm oil in the world. Palm oil has become the second largest vegetable oil consumption in China after soybean oil.
Driven by the surge in international oil prices, the prices of vegetable oil futures in China also remain high. On the international market, CBOT soybean futures prices have increased by about 25% year to date, American soybean meal futures have increased by 18% year to date, and the main contract prices of rapeseed meal, palm oil and soybean meal futures have increased by 37%, 34% and 25% year to date respectively.
However, the ban on the export of Indonesian palm oil may not be implemented for a long time. Zhou Shiyong, President of heyirong group, told China Business News: "the capacity of Indonesian palm oil tanks is limited. If they are not exported for one or two consecutive months, the tanks will be full." Zhou Shiyong believes that the main purpose of Indonesia's ban is to increase inventory supply and reduce oil prices.
net profit has decreased significantly, and the cost is difficult to control for a long time
Although Indonesia's "oil ban order" pushed up the stock prices of relevant stocks in the short term, from the perspective of the situation of the industry, the rising raw material prices seem to put the edible oil industry in trouble.
Taking Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) as an example, in the face of rising raw material costs, the company tried to "digest" by constantly raising prices, but the effect was not ideal.
In terms of performance, the company achieved a net profit of 4.132 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 31.15%. For the performance description, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) said that during the reporting period, the production and operation cost of the company was higher than that of the same period last year due to the large increase in the cost of raw materials. Although the company raised the selling price of some products, it did not fully cover the rise in raw material costs, and the profit decreased year-on-year.
This is also a problem facing the whole industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of edible oil in China rose by 6.9% in 2021, while the global edible oil rose by 65.8%.
Daodaoquan Grain And Oil Co.Ltd(002852) 2021 year loss of 155 million to 190 million yuan, and announced that the company as a grain and oil production and sales enterprises, production and operation needs a lot of oil, oil and other production raw materials, raw material price fluctuations will have a certain impact on the company.
Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) it is estimated that the loss in the first quarter of 2022 will be 22-20 million yuan, and the net profit will decrease by 125.54% to 123.22% year on year.
The financial reports of the above companies mentioned that the cost of raw materials including palm oil, soybean oil and vegetable oil increased significantly, and the average sales price of the company's products increased accordingly. The repeated global epidemic and weak consumption led to the decline of the company's sales volume and the setback of its performance.
However, the price of raw materials can not be reduced for a while and a half. For the later trend of palm oil price, Guoyuan futures believes that from the perspective of weather conditions, the recent increase in precipitation in Southeast Asia affects the harvest progress, and there is a blow to the expected recovery of output in April. Under the background of upside down import profits, China's supply has remained tight for a long time, and the basis will remain high until China's low inventory problem is effectively solved.
"In addition, crude oil prices are highly correlated with oil prices, and high crude oil prices are also one of the reasons for pushing up edible oil prices.". The datayes analysis report of Tonglian data points out that vegetable oils such as palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, peanut oil, corn oil and cottonseed oil have a certain substitution effect on oil, among which palm oil is the main raw material of biodiesel. With the soaring international crude oil prices, some European and American countries have put biodiesel plans on the agenda. Some enterprises use vegetable oil to process biofuels, which has contributed to the rise of edible oil prices.
