On Tuesday, A-Shares continued to adjust. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.44%, falling behind the integer mark of 2900 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.66%, the gem index fell 0.85%, and individual stocks on the market fell more or less. After the closing, the fund contacted you urgently
Xingshi investment, Guanfu assets, Baoyin investment, kangmand capital, Ruiyi investment, zhurun investment, Qinmu assets, gray assets, Yongjin investment, CITIC Prudential fund, honeycomb fund, Xiangcheng investment and other well-known public and private funds to analyze the reasons for the sharp decline, future market trend and investment opportunities.
Fund Jun learned that at present, many private placements have reduced their positions, focusing on defense and waiting for a clear market signal; However, some private placement think that the more the market falls, the more valuable it is, and choose to increase the position of equity assets against the market.
After Tuesday’s trading, ningquan assets, founded by Yang Dong, a big man in the asset management circle, issued the announcement on the use of inherent funds to purchase its funds. The announcement said that ningquan assets will use inherent funds to purchase 110 million yuan of its funds from today (April 26). “As of March 31, 2022, the company has held about 100 million yuan of its funds and has not redeemed them since the purchase. After completing the above investment, the company holds about 210 million yuan of its funds.”
adjustment reasons: multiple factors such as epidemic situation, interest rate increase and the situation in Russia and Ukraine
As for the continued adjustment of the market on Tuesday, Guanfu assets believes that A-Shares have been significantly adjusted again this week. Among them, the Shanghai index fell below 2900 points, a new low since the beginning of the year. There are both internal and external reasons for the sharp decline in the market: from the overseas perspective, the inflationary pressure remains high, and the Federal Reserve continues to raise its tightening expectations; Internally, there is great downward pressure on the economy, but the effect of “steady growth” is still not significant. The epidemic prevention and control brings great economic challenges, and there is also great uncertainty about the implementation of the “steady growth” policy. Due to the sharp narrowing and even upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, coupled with concerns about the economic outlook, the RMB has depreciated significantly against the US dollar since last week, which is also one of the catalysts for the decline.
Xiong Lin, director of Ruiyi investment research, analyzed that the continuous decline of the market this week was mainly due to the lack of market confidence under the current complex macro situation outside China; Especially under the situation of epidemic spread and containment in China, the market is worried about China’s economy, which is also the main reason for the weak performance of China’s stock market since April. On the one hand, from the perspective of China’s macro situation, the epidemic prevention and control has increased the downward pressure on the economy. Since the third quarter of last year, the macro economy has weakened. This year, the state has introduced positive measures to stabilize growth and set an annual economic growth target of 5.5%. However, due to the spread of Omicron in many places since March, the economic and social activities of residents and enterprises have been limited, which not only limits the overall demand of the macro economy, At the same time, the enterprise production and supply chain are also blocked. On the one hand, the pressure of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates and the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds has accelerated, and on the other hand, the pressure of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates and even the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds has intensified; At the same time, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has further escalated, and the overall overseas macro environment is facing the risk of interest rate hike and stagflation, which is unfavorable to the trend of the capital market.
Wang Rui, director of Equity Investment Department of CITIC Prudential fund, believes that since the beginning of the year, macro factors such as inflation, Russia, Ukraine and US bonds have had a great impact on the market; After entering April, the epidemic may have become the core contradiction in the current market, because it has the most direct impact on the profits of listed companies and the greatest impact on the economy, resulting in the panic of the market since April; The panic of the market has brought pressure on the trading structure. There are many passive stop loss funds, which exacerbated the volatility of the market. “The lack of confidence and the deterioration of trading structure are the main reasons for the recent decline. We see that many companies with good quarterly reports and good industrial trends have also fallen a lot recently, which is not the fundamental reason.”
Zhurun investment pointed out that the market had accumulated many negative factors in the early stage, but the disk did not fully price these factors, including the continuation of overseas war, the hawkish monetary policy tone of the Federal Reserve and the Chinese epidemic. In the past two months and weeks, the above factors have not improved significantly. After full brewing and accumulation, the market has chosen the more extreme way of emotional venting under the stimulation of new factors such as the Beijing epidemic. In addition, the long stampede of passive stop loss also makes it obvious that there are serious structural liquidity problems in the market. An important reason for the bull stampede is the lack of short-term confidence, as the resonance in the stock, exchange rate and commodity markets fell sharply.
Qinmu assets believes that the core factor worrying about the current market bottoming again is the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the lack of confidence in the recovery time of resumption of work and production and China’s logistics, the superposition of the recent impact of the RMB exchange rate, the negative sentiment caused by overseas interest rate hikes and contraction, and the bulk market disturbance caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, which have had a significant impact on the market style and risk appetite, The market needs to continue to grind the bottom at this position, and it will take time for confidence to recover. “In the recent correction, the decline of gem and Kechuang 50 is deeper than that of the main board. Affected by the epidemic and the rise of US bond yield, the risk appetite of the market continues to decrease, which still has a certain pressure on growth stocks. Since the market bottomed out on March 16, the yield differentiation between the strongest performing coal and the worst performing new energy industry has reached a historically rare level. At present, the decline of growth stocks is related to the value of growth stocks The temperature is decreasing. “
Yongjin investment said that at present, the epidemic data have not received a clear inflection point conclusion, and there is a trend of spread; At the same time, our macro hedging policy, limited by the internal and external environment, mainly intervenes by guiding expectations, has not really exerted its force, and the obstruction of economic consumption has also led to the downward adjustment of the expectations of annual and quarterly reports; In addition, under the triple pressure of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and tightening liquidity, the short-term extreme pressure broke out intensively, and the chain reaction of extremely pessimistic fear coupled with early warning and closing positions led to the sharp decline of the market.
Zhang Kexing, chairman of gray assets, said that in the short term, the sharp decline this week can be said to be caused by the sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the disturbance of the expectation of the US interest rate increase, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the intensification of the epidemic in some parts of China, which had an impact on everyone’s travel, production and consumption, causing market panic and large market fluctuations on Monday and Tuesday. However, if we look at it in a longer time dimension, from the changes of the market since 2019, this time is actually just a process of bear market.
Lei, chief research official of Xingshi investment, also said that from the perspective of fundamentals, the recent overseas conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought impact. For the whole year of this year, we should pay more attention to the Fed’s interest rate hike and interest rate rise. Since the first quarter, the inflation of the United States has continued to exceed expectations, and the expectation of the overall tightening of the United States has also been continuously strengthened; From the perspective of China, the national epidemic has been relatively serious since March. In the follow-up, there is great uncertainty about when the epidemic can be controlled and how much it will affect the economy. In addition, the continuous and rapid decline of the whole market itself does great harm to the mood. In terms of capital, due to the rapid decline in the market recently, some equity products face the risk of passive position cutting. In addition, investors also have some redemption pressure.
However, now the market valuation is at a historically low position, which has reflected many negative factors. It should be more and more positive as the market declines, or slowly turn to optimism.
Conmand capital said that the continuous decline of the market was suppressed by internal and external adverse factors. The external factors were mainly the withdrawal of global liquidity caused by the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction, while the internal factors were mainly the multi-point flowering of the epidemic, which had a negative impact on the economy. “At present, the steady growth policy is relatively restrained and the market confidence is insufficient. We believe that the internal factors are greater than the external factors, and the main contradiction is the impact of the epidemic on the overall economy. At present, the stock market valuation has entered a deep value space. It is expected that with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the market will rebound, and may is an important observation window. At present, the products are in medium and high positions, mainly in growth industries.”
public and private equity are optimistic about the market turnaround
A-Shares may is an important observation window
Is it basically over now? Zhang Kexing believes that at the end of the bear market, for example, the stock bond yield ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has reached about 3.14 times today; Looking at the increment of new social finance, it has begun to increase significantly since March; The average p / E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has been at the limit position in the past 10 years, about 11 times; Looking at Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index has fallen below twice the price to book ratio on March 16, reaching a very extreme position in history. “These data are very important signals that can help us make a prediction: A shares and Hong Kong shares are now at the bottom of the bear market. Based on this judgment, in the future, whether in the short-term or long-term, such as in the three-month dimension or in the one-year to three-year dimension, there is likely to be an upward cycle of more than two or three years in the future.”
Wang Rui said that when to stop falling, the market will naturally clear out, which will be a slow process. It is easy to form negative feedback of continuous stop loss and affect the short-term trend. “From the perspective of sentiment, we believe that it may be close to the extreme value. If there is some external intervention, including substantive intervention or expectation management, the market may rebound in this position. However, if it is a large rebound, we need to see at least one of the important factors such as the dawn of the epidemic, the armistice between Russia and Ukraine and the decline of inflation expectation. Although it is difficult to judge the time, I can’t judge the space They believe that in the short term, in a state of oversold, correction is also normal. If there is a rebound in the short term, it is expected that there may be several possible main lines: the first quarter report exceeding expectations, high-quality companies with particularly large decline, and industries with short-term catalysts. “
Guanfu assets admitted that the crux of the current market seems to be a myriad of clues, but it is not so complex. “We believe that the external focus is mainly on inflation and the actions of the Federal Reserve, while the core of China is epidemic prevention and control and the restoration of confidence. Recently, the real interest rate of US bonds has rapidly turned positive, and commodities have also begun to adjust against the background of the unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The tightening expectation is expected to gradually improve after the FOMC Federal Reserve further raises interest rates and formally shrinks the table in May. Internally, the epidemic in Shanghai is also gradually improving, and Beijing is fully prepared for prevention and control. I am optimistic Look, these two factors are expected to usher in a turnaround in the future. “
Qinmu assets said that it is believed that the epidemic will eventually pass, and its impact on the industrial chain will be gradually digested. It will focus on high-quality scientific and technological growth and opportunities for high-end manufacturing enterprises and consumer recovery. However, under the complex environment of China’s foreign markets, it needs more patience, so it will continue to do a good job in position control in the future. “From the past history, the style at the beginning of the year may not be the setting tone of the whole year, and the substantial repair of growth stocks may be under some pressure in the short term. However, from the two-year dimension, many companies already have significant absolute income characteristics. Now it is time to look for high-quality companies, and often the darkest moment of the market breeds a lot of opportunities. At present, the dominant capital in the market is relatively short, but this will not be the norm. With the follow-up The epidemic has been alleviated, the steady growth policy has been implemented one after another, the market has regained confidence in the economy, and the risk appetite will be improved. However, at this stage, the tightening of overseas liquidity will suppress the market. Therefore, we think it will be relatively anxious in the short term and not pessimistic in the medium and long term. “
Honeycomb Fund believes that looking forward to the future, after this market adjustment, CSI 300, CSI 500 and other indexes have reached a relatively underestimated position. At present, the market is at the bottom, and the downward space mainly depends on the duration of the epidemic. Therefore, the core is still concerned about the development of the epidemic and the R & D of covid-19 drugs in China. If there is evidence that it can be unsealed during May Day, the stock market is expected to usher in the economic recovery after unsealing.
Zhang Zhiwei, President and chief economist of Baoyin investment, said that the current market is most worried about the economic losses caused by the epidemic, which has intensified with the spread of the epidemic in more cities, including Beijing. The rapid depreciation of the RMB in the past few days has also further escalated the concerns of global investors about China’s economy. In the short term, we continue to be cautious about the economy and the market, because there are no signs of possible changes, and the market volatility may continue. From the perspective of valuation level, the current valuation of all A-Shares has fallen below the 20% quantile level since 2000, at a relatively low level in history. In the future, the government may adjust some policies under economic pressure to protect the economy and stabilize market confidence. The attraction of China’s medium and long-term capital market is increasing.
Xiong Lin said that for the future market, we should keep a wait-and-see attitude towards the market in the short term, wait for the macro situation outside China to be cleared, and are not pessimistic about the medium and long-term market. “The short-term market still needs to wait for the easing of the macro situation outside China. On the one hand, we can only see the restart and recovery of China’s economic activities after waiting for the inflection point of China’s epidemic. In particular, the control and mitigation of the epidemic in Shanghai and more flexible, pragmatic and effective epidemic prevention policies will be conducive to the recovery of confidence in the capital market; on the other hand, we will wait for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and shrink the table in May. At that time, the pressure caused by the rise of US bond yields will come to an end. The same We also need to observe the changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine. If it is eased, it will be conducive to the valuation repair of the global capital market. “
Zhurun investment said that at the current point, it is highly optimistic about the investment opportunities in the market. There have been good investment opportunities in many stocks and industries, and the short-term market price does not match the development trend and Prospect of the medium and long-term industry. “There is a high chance that the market will rebound. We believe that the restoration of confidence may only require some accidental opportunities, and the extent of restoration may not be low. The sharp and rapid adjustment of the market has digested and reflected the negative information to a considerable extent, and the fundamentals are also ushering in a positive turn. For example, the hawkish monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has produced some counter phagocytic effects, and the recent adjustment of global risk assets has increased The degree is not low. The yield of us ten-year Treasury bonds is also high, and there is a correction of nearly 20bp, which means that the US Treasury bond market does not think that the sharp interest rate increase in the United States can go unhindered, and the decline of commodity prices will also alleviate the Fed’s concern about inflation. “
some reduce their positions sharply to prevent risks
there are also some high-quality stocks that add positions against the market
Fund Jun learned that recently, institutions have made great distinction in investment operation. Some have significantly reduced their positions, while others have chosen to increase their positions against the market. For example, the general manager of private placement said that their positions have been reduced one after another, leaving only some varieties with stable growth and absolute value. Under the crash, they mainly avoid risks first.
Guanfu assets said that at present, the overall valuation of the market has been reduced to a level similar to the historical bottom. From the medium-term perspective, China needs more space, strong resilience, and relatively sufficient policy space. Although the short-term market is more likely to be driven by sentiment and uncertain, it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic about the medium-term prospect.
For some time to come, it will still be a process of gradual confirmation of the policy bottom and transition to the market bottom. “In the future, we will continue to pay close attention to the data and policy signals outside China. We will actively evaluate the investment opportunities after the macro situation becomes clearer. The main directions of the current portfolio layout include large finance, manufacturing, consumption and service industries. Recently, we have made some adjustments to the portfolio in combination with top-down and bottom-up research and analysis. In the general direction, we increase our holdings of consumer goods, reduce our holdings of cyclical assets, and adjust The position structure of the whole manufacturing industry. At the same time, stock index futures hedging is also used for long protection. The overall portfolio position has declined and is currently at a medium to low level. “
Xiong Lin said that recently, the market has been greatly adjusted, and the overall position has remained relatively low. There is no major adjustment in the position. The overall net value performance has fallen slightly, but the decline range is limited, and investors are more satisfied with the pullback feedback. “After the market decline this year, many high-quality growth stocks have returned to a comfortable position with attractive valuation. We believe that the continued decline of the market will be more about breeding opportunities than risks. We will continue to deeply track and study the fundamentals and overall macro situation changes of high-quality companies, and gradually choose opportunities to layout high-quality companies; in the direction of allocation, we maintain a relatively balanced allocation idea and continue to be optimistic about new energy, technology and high-tech industries Companies that comply with China’s high-quality development direction, such as end manufacturing, consumption and medicine. “
Xiangcheng investment believes that the recent index has fallen rapidly below important points, but there is no sign of rebound. It shows that the main contradiction in the market has shifted from the pessimistic expectation of performance to the liquidity crisis stage of some products. Looking back on the year to date, the market has used four months to wipe out the profits of the past two years, which shows that the main premise of the so-called “good industry, good company and good price” is macroeconomic stability and stable industrial development. “At this time point, we still believe that we need to control positions first in operation. We should pay close attention to the effect of China’s credit expansion and the tightening process of the Federal Reserve. We must be cautious until the two factors are not reversed. In terms of industry configuration, we should choose the industry layout with high performance certainty and low valuation as far as possible. At the same time, we should pay attention to the industries with marginal changes driven by policy.”
Yongjin investment said that in terms of operation, the current basic investment strategy still plays the expected role. In the case of extreme market risks, the fixed increase discount strategy and option strategy have played a certain protective role. Due to the short-term withdrawal, the position is also relatively large, but the position is also relatively large. In the follow-up, we will continue to balance attack and defense. On the premise of protection, we will continue to layout high-quality companies, including sector leaders less affected by the epidemic.
However, zhurun investment revealed that in the recent sharp market adjustment, based on the medium and long-term optimism about China’s economy and capital market, it increased its position in equity assets against the trend. At present, the position of equity assets in some composite strategy portfolios has increased from less than 10% to 40%. “We believe that as the approver of the value investment concept of the capital market, we should increase our positions in this market environment, otherwise we should not call ourselves a value investor. At present, the focus of the layout is still on adding positions as a whole. In terms of industry sectors, the number of industry sectors with investment opportunities is increasing, including medicine, Baijiu, coal, home appliances and many other sectors may have fallen in place.”
Zhang Kexing also told reporters, “Since last week, we have started to increase our positions gradually and slowly. The main direction of increasing our positions is companies with strong performance support, good business model and high moat barriers, that is, high-quality stocks. Of course, at this time, we will also consider the cost performance of the valuation, that is, we should try to match the profitability to a certain extent, not over overestimated stocks, which is the starting point of our future layout 。 The results of the final screening and the promising direction in the future are mainly in the food and beverage dominated by consumption, coupled with the Internet in Hong Kong stocks, which is greatly affected by policy supervision, as well as property services, medicine and traditional Chinese medicine. These directions are our key areas of layout. “
Zhang Kexing further said that from the perspective of practical operation, the current bottom area may last for a long time, and there will be great differentiation in many stocks in the bottom area. For example, from the current valuation, some stocks in A-Shares are still relatively expensive, while others are relatively cheap. The proportion of cheap stocks in Hong Kong stocks may be more. At the end of this bear market, many stocks may fall more and see the bottom in advance. Therefore, the trend in the future will be relatively differentiated. “So in the operation of adding positions, I suggest that we should do it slowly, find out the high-quality stocks, and choose the cheaper target to add positions slowly.”
Wang Rui believes that the stock market is a voting device in the short term and a weighing device in the long term. “The short-term trend of stocks will be affected by a lot of noise, but on the other hand, we have repeatedly verified that the winning rate and odds of recognized companies are high enough in a medium and long-term dimension. For the relatively certain space, we are willing to spend some time to verify and realize the value. The industries we are now focusing on, including electric vehicles, photovoltaic, military industry, wealth management, new materials, and even some food and beverage, are all reflected at present It has a very good investment value. Many even have a valuation of only ten times, corresponding to a compound growth of about 30. In fact, this opportunity is not very easy to see. In this position, we think it is no longer appropriate to be overly pessimistic. We also hope to have the opportunity to carry through this difficult period with the holders and strive to create reasonable returns for the holders. “
