In 2022, A-Shares continued to fluctuate widely. In an interview with the Securities Daily, seven chief economists and chief strategy officers of seven securities companies said that there are many factors leading to the recent decline of the A-share market, including the weakening economy caused by the epidemic and the opposite direction of monetary policy between China and the United States. However, the long-term trend of China's economic development has not changed, and multiple positive factors have consolidated the basic market of A-shares.
negative factors release
entering the final stage
For the current market performance, Dong zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC securities, told the reporter of Securities Daily that at present, the continuous decline of the market is mainly a reflection of pessimism, which deviates from the economic fundamentals to a certain extent.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chief strategist Dai Kang told the reporter of Securities Daily that the recent obvious decline in the market just means that the negative factors of the early market are being digested more and more; At the same time, although this round of epidemic has a great potential impact on the economy, the current supply chain is being repaired, the steady growth policy of real estate is also being promoted, the export chain is still resilient, and the fundamental logic of A-Shares is still relatively positive.
"After a sharp decline over the past month, the release of negative factors in the market has entered the final stage." Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) strategy chief analyst Liu Chenming said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that on the one hand, the policy is paying more attention to the stability of the supply chain and the resumption of work and production of enterprises; On the other hand, behind the weakening of the RMB exchange rate is the dominance of the risks such as the epidemic and the reduction of the table. These two factors are expected to gradually ease with the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai and the landing of the Federal Reserve's reduction of the table in May.
"In the short term, there are some 'disturbances' in China's economic repair. The economic repair is subject to certain constraints, and the A-share market may remain volatile for some time. However, in the medium and long term, under the background of the steady growth policy, the adjusted market opportunities are still worth looking forward to." Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily.
Affected by multiple factors outside China, Chen Li expects the economic data in April to weaken significantly. However, with the continuous efforts of China's steady growth policy and the effective control of the epidemic, the subsequent economy will gradually recover steadily.
repeated bottom grinding process
waiting for completion of construction
How will the A-share market return to a reasonable range in the process of emotional dominated fluctuations?
In Dong zhongyun's view, investors should have firm confidence in the market and do not need to be overly pessimistic.
Dong zhongyun further explained that first of all, after the national epidemic eases further, economic activities will recover rapidly and the restriction of consumption on the economy will be lifted quickly. Secondly, the government has a clear attitude towards stabilizing growth and ensuring people's livelihood. Favorable policies in many aspects such as financial support, logistics guarantee, tax preference, stabilizing real estate and system reform have been implemented one after another, and the follow-up probability will continue to introduce relevant policies, which will play an important role in stabilizing the economy. At present, the available scale of special bonds of local governments is large, and there are still many growth points of investment in infrastructure, double carbon and emerging industries. We should maintain confidence and patience in the steady growth of investment.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief strategy officer Chen Guo said in an interview with Securities Daily that from the medium-term perspective, although the market bottom grinding process may continue to repeat, investors need not be too pessimistic and should patiently wait for the market to complete the bottom construction. On the one hand, the credit base may have been roughly confirmed, and the subsequent profit base will be gradually completed in the medium term; On the other hand, the market valuation and sentiment indicators have entered the bottom of the market. Although there is still the possibility of continued decline in the future, the space is relatively limited in terms of odds.
Li Daxiao, chief expert of Yingda Securities Research Institute, told the reporter of Securities Daily that recently, various departments have released many favorable policies and signals for the economy, stock market and property market, but the transmission of good needs a process. At the stock level, driven by favorable policies, high-quality undervalued stocks and stocks related to steady growth may benefit more. Stronger stimulus policies are needed to stabilize the economy in the future, which is also the basis for the stability of the stock market. With the stability of the economy, don't lose confidence in good stocks.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategist Zhang Xia told the reporter of Securities Daily that at present, positive signals are emerging for a shares. The growth rate of new medium and long-term social finance in March is higher than expected, and the steady growth is still landing. All localities are exploring the balance between epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production, and the national logistics index continued to rebound. The epidemic situation in important areas began to show signs of improvement, which will help stabilize the growth of projects, enter the peak of construction, and the economic and profit growth will hit the bottom and pick up. The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate has become a new concern of the market, but whether the funds will continue to flow out depends on China's economic and corporate profit expectations. After the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the devaluation of the exchange rate is more likely to be seen as a signal conducive to the improvement of China's exports. Recently, the funds going north have not fluctuated more than before, but the market pays more attention to which industries benefit from the devaluation of the exchange rate. The reduction and increase of important shareholders of listed companies and the increase of repurchase of listed companies all contribute to the stability of the market. Overall, from late April to early May this year, A-Shares may usher in the starting point of the upward cycle. At present, they may be in the process of brewing a "counterattack" in the bottom area.
In Chen Guo's view, the short-term market still faces many challenges, and the medium and long-term perspective should consider defensive counterattack and bargain hunting layout.
