The Shanghai index closed at 2900% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen index continued to fall by 26% as of January 4. In terms of sectors, the textile and garment sector, which was active in the early stage, led the decline in the two cities, while the coal, oil and gas and agriculture sectors also led the decline. The securities business sector also fell sharply, and only the tax-free, water conservancy, hepatitis concept and other sectors rose slightly. In terms of individual stocks, there were less than 800 stocks rising in the two cities. In addition, with the collective weakness of major indexes in the afternoon, the fried rate of trading stocks was more than half today.
Since the end of last year, the three major indexes have continued to fluctuate and fall, and accelerated the downward exploration since late April. As of today (April 26), the Shanghai index has fallen by 20.7% in the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index have fallen by more than 30%. In terms of individual stocks, according to the rise and fall range since this year, more than 4000 stocks have fallen by more than 10%, of which 418 stocks have halved their share prices (down more than 50% this year). Among the stocks on the list, nearly 220 stocks have risen by more than 10%, and the median stocks have fallen by 29.26%.
In terms of sectors, according to the industry index, since the beginning of the year, only the indexes of coal mining and processing sector and hotel catering sector have increased, while the indexes of banking, real estate development, retail, scenic spot tourism and other sectors have decreased slightly. On the decline list, the indexes of automation equipment, semiconductors, military industry, auto parts, auto vehicles, education and other sectors fell by more than 30% during the year, while the indexes of household appliances, metals, securities, chemicals, oil and gas and other sectors fell by more than 20%.
Leading heavyweights in various sectors also performed poorly this year. As of today’s close, there were 124 individual stocks with a total market value of more than 100 billion yuan, and the share prices of only 29 individual stocks achieved positive growth during the year, with nearly 76.6% of heavyweights falling. Among them, in addition to Jingke Energy listed this year, Yankuang energy, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) has increased by more than 30% this year. Among the heavyweights with an increase of more than 10%, most of them are concentrated in coal, oil and gas, banking, infrastructure and real estate sectors.
Note: heavyweights with a total market value of 100 billion yuan that have increased by more than 10% since this year (as of the closing on April 26)
Among the heavyweights with the largest decline, except for individual brokerage stocks, most of them belong to track related sectors that were active last year. Semiconductor stocks Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , lithium battery stocks Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , automobile stocks Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) fell by more than 50% in the year, Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , China stock market news and Baiji Shenzhou fell by more than 40%, and 17 stocks fell by more than 30%. The share price of heavyweights in the head performed slightly better this year. Six of the nine heavyweights with a total market value of more than 800 billion yuan rose, with only Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 15.5%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (- 21.1%) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 35.88%) falling.
Note: heavyweights with a total market value of 100 billion yuan that have fallen by more than 30% since this year (as of the closing on April 26)
Note: heavyweights with a total market value of more than 800 billion yuan (closing on April 26)
With the recent poor performance of the overall market and individual stocks, the market sentiment has become significantly colder. Especially when the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the integer mark of 3000 and 2900, the market pays close attention to when the bottom can be reached Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the real income of the US dollar has become positive and the RMB continues to depreciate rapidly. These risks of complications caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike are currently digested by the market. Now, the more fully the risk is released, the bottom can come earlier, and the market in May can have a blood returning environment. The Shanghai stock index and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 give up their support, which means that the risks that should be released in the market are released simultaneously. Although these characteristics make investors uncomfortable, they often mean that the bottom of the new market is not far away.
For the future market, Debang Securities pointed out that it is now in a key window period. For the market, the current panic mood is close to the extreme value. Whether from the rapid depreciation of the exchange rate, the rise of asset linkage, or the extreme value of sentiment indicators (the sum of the length of the 5-day physical negative line referred to on the GEM), the panic decline in the short-term market may come to an end for some time. However, the crux of the market trend shift lies in the changes in the internal and external environment. At present, the dawn of the short-term improvement of the crux is to wait for the social aspect of the epidemic in Shanghai to be cleared the closing period of the first quarterly report, the meeting of the Political Bureau, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and even the whole country, and the resumption of work and production are several important observation points at present.
In addition, deppon Securities believes that market is at the bottom stage, waiting for the dawn . Historically, ERP has certain indicative significance for the excess return rate of CSI 300 in the next year. Based on the predicted net profit of 10-year CDB bonds and CSI 300 in 2022, the ERP is 7.31%, which is the highest value since 2015, surpassing the end of 2018 and February 2020, according to the above two time points, the potential rising space of CSI 300 in the future may be about 30%
