The US dollar index continued to rise, the interest rate spread between China and the United States continued to “hang upside down”, Ted interest rate spread rebounded, and China’s capital was loose as a whole. Last week (2022041820220422), the US dollar index continued to rise, and the net long position of the US dollar rebounded. The interest rate spread between China and the United States continued to “hang upside down”, the nominal value of US bonds continued to rise, the real interest rate decreased slightly, and inflation expectations continued to rise. Overseas, Ted interest rate spread rebounded and offshore dollar liquidity tightened; For China, inter-bank funds are generally loose, liquidity stratification is not obvious, and term interest margin (10y-1y) continues to widen. In terms of transaction heat, the transaction heat and volatility of real estate, coal, consumer services and other sectors are still at an all-time high; In terms of research, the research heat of computer, electronics, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, nonferrous metals, textile and clothing and other sectors ranked first, while the research heat of consumer services, food and beverage, automobile, textile and clothing and other sectors increased rapidly month on month.
The northward allocation sector has a net outflow for three consecutive weeks, and the trading sector is still the main buying force. Last week (2022041920220422), the northbound allocation market net sold A-Shares of 1.290 billion yuan, and the northbound trading market net bought A-Shares of 3.072 billion yuan. On a daily basis, the configuration disk continues to sell first and then returns continuously; The trading sector sold sharply on Wednesday (20220420) and bought on other trading days. In the industry, the consensus between northbound trading and configuration is to net buy chemical, coal, transportation, construction, nonferrous metals and other sectors, and net sell electronics, automobile, steel, building materials, machinery and other industries. In terms of style, the northward allocation / trading sector net buys small cap growth sector and net sells small cap value sector at the same time, while there are obvious differences in other sectors (Large Cap / medium Cap Growth / value sector). For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the northward allocation board net bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 1263 billion yuan and 176 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 225 million yuan. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in nonferrous metals, non silver, computers, medicine and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions fell back to the low point of the year. Last week (2022041820220422), Liangrong net sold 24.411 billion yuan, mainly Buying banking, textile and clothing and other sectors, and mainly selling Dianxin, medicine, computer, nonferrous metals, electronics, chemical industry, non bank and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchase in light industry, banking, textile and clothing sectors increased month on month, and the proportion of financing purchase in the above sectors was below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net sells all kinds of style sectors (large market / medium market / small market value / growth sector).
The stock position of partial stock hybrid / common stock funds fell slightly, and the ETF mainly held by individuals as the proxy variable shows that Jimin is still “bottom reading” funds. Based on the calculation of quadratic programming method: the stock positions of partial stock hybrid / common stock funds fell slightly last week (2022041820220422). After excluding the factors of rise and fall, they mainly increased their positions in medicine, Dianxin, nonferrous metals, real estate, chemical industry, building materials, steel, non silver, coal, construction and other sectors, and mainly reduced their positions in food and beverage, electronics, automobile, consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were continuously net subscribed. Among them, ETFs related to financial and real estate, consumption, medicine, technology, cycle and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to new energy and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy financial real estate, medicine, cycle and other sectors at the same time, and there are differences in consumption, new energy and some science and technology sectors. In addition, last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were also continuously net subscribed, mainly wide-based ETFs. For trend traders, Liangrong sold most industries and only slightly bought banking, textile and clothing sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought new energy, chemical industry, electric power, real estate, medicine, coal and other sectors. On the whole, the buying consensus of the market as a whole is still low, and the buying consensus in nonferrous metals, banking, coal, chemical industry, construction and other sectors is relatively high. It is worth mentioning that, at present, there are still great differences between domestic and foreign capital, but the cognition on financial construction and some resources (nonferrous metals, coal, etc.) is gradually converging: Based on the calculation of quadratic programming method, the active partial stock fund is still operating in a bipolar way. On the one hand, it is to increase the position of growth sectors such as medicine, telecommunications and computers, on the other hand, it is to increase the position of resources (nonferrous metals, coal, petroleum and petrochemical), real estate chain, infrastructure chain, finance and other sectors; The long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector are still buying financial construction, some consumption (food and beverage, consumer services, etc.), resources (nonferrous metals, coal) and other sectors.
Risk tip: measurement error.
