Macro dynamic comments
China: expected to improve gradually. 1) Monetary policy: in April, the 1-year LPR was 3.7%, and the 5-year LPR was 4.6%, unchanged from the previous month. 2) Economic data: GDP in the first quarter was + 4.8% year-on-year, the added value of above designated industries was + 5.0% year-on-year in March, the retail sales of social consumer goods was - 3.5% year-on-year, the cumulative fixed asset investment was + 9.3% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate was 5.8%, an increase of 0.3%. 3) Macro policy: opinions on promoting the development of individual pension issued; The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to select some regions to carry out pilot projects of domestic and foreign trade integration; The futures and derivatives law came into force on August 1; The Shenzhen Reform Commission established and improved the financial system adjustment mechanism below the provincial level. 4) Risk: Fang Xinghai said that the negotiations between China and the United States are progressing very smoothly, and the relevant uncertainties will be eliminated soon; On April 18, 23286 people were discharged from the cabin in Shanghai, exceeding the number of new positive infections; Tesla Shanghai Super factory resumed work on the 19th.
Overseas: the strong dollar policy continues. 1) Monetary policy: Powell of the Federal Reserve praised Volcker's contribution to fighting deep-rooted inflation and pointed out that the next meeting will discuss raising interest rates by 50 basis points; Lagarde of the European Central Bank pointed out that the EU's economic growth expectations were lowered and inflation expectations were raised. At the same time, the Management Committee of the European Central Bank said that interest rates could be raised as soon as July; The IMF said Japan had no reason to change its economic policies, including the ultra-low interest rate policy of the central bank. 2) Economic data: the IMF lowered the global economic growth rate to 3.6% in 2022; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve believes that the uncertainty caused by the current geopolitical impact and rising prices has cast a shadow on the prospect of future economic growth; South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of April increased by 16.9% year-on-year to US $36.285 billion. 3) Risk: the real interest rate of US bonds turns positive, and high-risk assets may face revaluation in the short term; Turkey conducts cross-border military operations against the PKK; Germany announced that it would no longer import Russian oil from next year; US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the European energy ban on Russia could do more harm than good.
