Analysis of the computer industry: the public offering position of the computer sector continues to decline. Taking the market value of Shenwan computer industry, which is a heavy position of the public fund, as the observation index, has decreased for four consecutive quarters after a slight rebound in Q1 in 21 years, and the proportion of Q1 in 22 years is only half of the high point of the semi annual report in 20 years. Considering various factors such as valuation, prosperity and external environment, we believe that the sector is still in the bottom seeking stage, and the key factors driving the sector reversal have not yet appeared. The track with undervalued value and high performance certainty is still preferred in this stage, with emphasis on information innovation, energy it and intelligent driving.
Public offering positions in the computer sector continued to decline. We take the market value ratio of Shenwan computer industry to the market value of the fund’s stock investment as the observation index. This index reached a high value in the semi annual report of 20 years, and has declined rapidly in the following two quarters. It has declined for four consecutive quarters since Q1 rebounded slightly in 21 years. In Q1 of 22 years, this index was 1.73% (of which Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) accounted for 0.57%), which has fallen by half compared with the high of 3.57% in the second quarter of 20 years.
The top ten heavy positions have little change, including cloud computing, intelligent driving, warehouse reduction security, network security, medical it, etc. The top ten positions of Q1 institutions in the computer sector changed slightly, among which Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) and Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) fell out of the top ten positions of institutions, and Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) and Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) entered the top ten positions. In terms of sectors, institutions have significantly increased their positions in the direction of cloud computing and intelligent driving, including 1360617 million shares of Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) shares, with the largest increase. In addition, the direction of being increased by institutions includes energy it, information innovation, remote sensing it, etc. The main direction of institutional position reduction is security, network security, medical it and other directions strongly related to government expenditure and policies. Considering the main factors such as the epidemic, the pace of China’s economic recovery is not clear, and the government finance is relatively tight, there is some uncertainty in the prosperity of the above sectors this year.
The sector continues to find the bottom. After the high point in July 2020, the computer sector has been continuously adjusted for nearly two years. Up to now, the high point of the lowest point of the computer (Shenwan) index has been reduced by nearly 45%. At present, the valuations of industries and individual stocks are in the bottom range, and the institutional positions also continue to decline. However, at present, the key factors of policies or industries that can drive the reversal of the sector have not yet appeared. At the same time, there are still many uncertain factors affecting the valuation and performance of the sector, such as the increase of interest rates in the United States, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated epidemic in China. We believe that the sector may continue to find the bottom. At the current stage, priority is given to the direction of undervalued value, high performance certainty and on the main line of policy industry, such as information innovation, energy it, automatic driving and other directions. The policy is friendly, the industrial trend is clear, and there are many changes and catalysis at the fundamental level.
The logic of the sustained growth of the computer industry over the past 15 years is: on the one hand, policies accelerate the improvement of localization rate and informatization rate, on the other hand, technological changes trigger new business models and market demand. Summarizing the situation of the computer sector in the past 15 years, we believe that the large-scale market of the computer sector has four characteristics: low valuation, performance driven, main track and enterprise appeal. From the history of the past 15 years, every five years, the computer sector will breed a round of super market, and the main line of the market and the target with the best increase are basically in the five-year policy and industrial main line.
The most clear signal of industrial and technological change is the gradual change. Looking back on previous bottom reversals, new policies with landing are reversal signals, while in a round of big market, technology and industrial direction tend to show greater flexibility and toughness.
The policy and industrial direction in the 14th Five Year Plan period are gradually clear, waiting for reversal. Since the beginning of this year, documents including the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy and the government work report have repeatedly defined the major policy directions in the next few years, while the directions of industries such as autonomous driving, energy it and information innovation have become more and more clear. Under the background of uncertainty in the current sector performance and external environment, give priority to the sectors with high uncertainty in the growth of undervalued value, and wait for the signal from the industry beta to rise again.
Investment suggestions: focus on credit and innovation sectors Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Digital China Group Co.Ltd(000034) , energy it Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , automatic driving Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) , etc.
Risk warning: 5g progress is lower than expected; The business process of industrial Internet and Internet of vehicles is less than expected; Macroeconomic downturn, investment less than expected; The policy effect is less than expected.
