Core view
The economic data of the first quarter were released, and the infrastructure investment kept increasing. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, the completion of generalized infrastructure investment in the first quarter of this year increased by 10.5% year-on-year and 1.9 percentage points month on month from January to February, of which the infrastructure investment in a single month in March increased by 11.8% year-on-year and 3.2 percentage points month on month. Under the promotion of the steady growth policy, the funds were in place step by step and began to transmit to the physical workload. The real estate data is still relatively sluggish. From January to March, the investment in real estate development and development increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 3 percentage points month on month. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% and the decline expanded by 4.2 percentage points month on month. The newly started area of housing decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 5.3 percentage points month on month. The completed area of housing decreased by 11.5% year-on-year and the decline expanded by 1.7 percentage points month on month.
The decline in cement output narrowed and the demand gradually recovered. This year, the cumulative output of Q1 cement was 387 million tons, which was a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The decline was narrowed by 5.7 percentage points from January to February. Among them, the monthly cement output in March was 187 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the cement demand recovered step by step. Although the epidemic relapsed in many places in March, the base of the previous year was high, and the monthly cement output decreased, it still maintained the second high level in the same period since 18 years, It is expected that in the later stage, with the effective control of the epidemic and the accelerated promotion of major projects around the country, the demand is expected to accelerate the centralized release. The epidemic affects the pace of demand recovery and pays attention to the underestimated value and high-quality leaders. At present, the demand of the industry is still in the recovery stage, but the latest data show that the overall recovery pace is slow, which will strengthen the game expectation that the worse the demand, the more the policy needs to be further overweight; In addition, recently, the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission have continuously introduced relevant measures to accelerate “steady growth”. Local governments have also continuously relaxed real estate regulation policies to stabilize the operation of the real estate market. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant varieties with capital construction and real estate demand and high safety margin of valuation, and grasp the window investment opportunities of cement and real estate chain building materials in the short term. The tracking and investment suggestions of each sub industry at the current time point are as follows:
Cement: the demand performance of the national cement market is still weak this week, but with the implementation of staggered peak production in some regions to alleviate the pressure of supply and demand, the pressure of the continuous rise of inventory is slightly relieved, and the prices in various regions show a shock adjustment trend. As of April 22, the national p.o42 5. The average price of high-standard cement was 509.83 yuan / ton, up 0.29% month on month, and the storage capacity ratio was 66.38%, down 0.81 percentage points month on month. In the short term, against the backdrop of “steady growth” in the context of “steady growth” in the short term, major projects across the country are advancing, and short-term proposals are advancing. In the short term, to keep an eye on epidemic control policies and cost side changes, short-term recommendations to keep a short-term proposal to keep a focus on the short-term recommendations to keep an eye on epidemic control and control policies and cost side changes, and to recommend ‘ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) \ , Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ;
Glass: benefiting from the lifting of some restrictions in North and East China this week, the operating rate of downstream processing plants increased and some replenishment behavior occurred, and the overall demand of the country is still average. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of float glass in China’s mainstream market this week was 205322 yuan / ton, up 0.33% month on month. The inventory of production enterprises in key provinces was 49.46 million heavy containers, an increase of 1.7 million heavy containers month on month. Short term suggestions: pay attention to control and new orders; The medium and long-term technological upgrading of the glass industry is still the focus. It is recommended that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . Other building materials: ① glass fiber: the roving market quotation this week is mainly stable, the price of electronic yarn market has stabilized in the near future, the downstream replenishment is required, and the operation is stable in the short term or in the near future; In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, driven by the demand side, the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to be optimized, the competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated in the future, and the current price can continue to be long. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; ② Other building materials: the resilience of real estate investment remains, and the market share of leading enterprises in various sub industries has increased steadily. It is suggested to hold the bargain hunting layout for a long time. It is recommended to Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; Higher than expected cost increase
