Core view:
The first quarter results are under pressure, waiting for the stock market to repair and boost the sector
Recently, the head brokerage Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) disclosed the Q1 performance express in 2022, and the company's revenue was 15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 7.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.24% China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) q1 achieved an operating revenue of 3.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.99%; Under the background of the increasing market concentration of head securities companies, the head performance is still not optimistic. Combined with the continuous decline of the stock market and the impact of external negative factors, we expect the overall performance of the securities industry in the first quarter of this year to be under pressure, and individual stocks may have performance differentiation. If the market starts to repair the upward trend, it is expected to boost the overall brokerage sector.
In terms of the industry, the performance may be under pressure as a whole: since this year, the performance of the secondary market has been depressed, the risk appetite of investors has been reduced, and the fund wait-and-see mood is strong. Q1 Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index all fell significantly, and the turnover increased slightly, with a total turnover of 58.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The main reason may be the increase of listed new shares and the increase of stock based turnover under the expansion of the overall market scale, but the range is limited, which is difficult to contribute to the performance increment of traditional brokerage business. In terms of consignment, due to the influence of the market, the scale of new fund issuance has decreased, and the marketing of securities companies is more difficult. This year, the newly issued shares of Q1 public funds decreased by more than 80% year-on-year. In addition, the overall operating revenue of the securities business department in Shenzhen in January was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13.5%, and the total profit was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of half. Among them, the number of profitable business departments decreased by nearly 100 compared with the same period last year. Brokerage business income is usually the business income of the first two branches of the securities industry (the other is self operated business). Under the pressure of fundamentals, it is difficult for brokerage business to have a bright performance in the first quarter.
In terms of individual stocks, differentiation is likely to occur: in addition to brokerage business, proprietary business is another major source of income for securities companies, mainly including equity / bond investment, derivatives trading, etc. Under the background of the recent downward market shock, the performance difference of self operated business income of different companies is quite different from the company's investment income and income from changes in fair value. For example, China stock market news recently released a quarterly report. The company's investment income in the first quarter was 447 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.75%, but the income from changes in fair value was - 255 million, a year-on-year decrease of 552280%. In addition, the derivatives business ability of head securities companies is stronger than that of small and medium-sized securities companies, and their profitability in terms of anti risk fluctuation and structural market is stronger. In addition, it is common for the sci-tech innovation board to break new shares and investors to abandon their purchases this year. The follow-up investment system makes securities companies actively or passively bear the risk of investment income. The different performance of IPO will directly affect the company's performance and cause further performance differentiation.
Risk tip: the effect of policy implementation is less than expected or even tightened, liquidity is tightened, stock based turnover has fallen sharply, and the overall market downside risk.
