2022q1 nonferrous metals stocks showed differentiation, and SW nonferrous metals fell 3.88% in the quarter. The quarterly average price of metals generally rose in 2022q1. In terms of industrial metals, Q1 copper and aluminum prices rose month on month. In copper, the Fed raised interest rates and confirmed long-term inflation, low inventories and high copper prices; In terms of aluminum, under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, overseas energy prices generally rose, and cost side pressure pushed up aluminum prices. In terms of energy metals, the prices of rare earth magnetic materials, cobalt lithium and other related metals rose, but the stock price deviated from the commodity price. In terms of precious metals, the upward fluctuation of gold price drives the strength of the sector. SW nonferrous metals fell 3.88% in the single quarter of 2022q1, ranking 9th in Shenwan industry.
In 2022q1, the proportion of non-ferrous industry fund positions increased by 0.82pct to 4.47% month on month. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022, the rise of global energy prices promoted the upward movement of metal cost and high inflation, which led to the rise of industrial metal prices again and the increase of fund positions. In terms of energy metals, lithium and nickel prices hit record highs, but the market is worried that high metal prices will eat back demand, which is expected to weaken and reduce positions more. In terms of precious metals, under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and global inflation, the demand for capital hedging and anti inflation is strong, the price of gold soars, the performance of related targets of precious metals is good, and the position of public funds increases accordingly. Overall, the fund position Q1 increased month on month.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about copper aluminum, lithium cobalt nickel and precious metal opportunities.
1) industrial metals: steady growth is the icing on the cake when the supply cycle is in progress. Supply side: under the background of double carbon, the insufficient capital expenditure and epidemic disturbance are superimposed, pushing up the industrial metal cost curve and opening the supply side cycle. Demand side: the steady growth policy resonates with the demand for new energy. It is expected that commodity prices will be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future. It is suggested to focus on Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) .
2) new energy metals: the short-term epidemic disturbs demand, the long-term trend of global electrification remains unchanged, and the resource premium capacity is improved under the long-term tight supply and demand structure. Lithium: the tight supply pattern was determined, and the premium of lithium resources increased significantly; Demand is disturbed by the epidemic in the short term, but the long-term trend of electrification remains unchanged, and the supply and demand pattern will continue to improve in the long term.
Cobalt: it faces the pressure of increasing supply in the short term, but the transportation problem is difficult to solve under the epidemic, and the price fluctuates in the long term or steady state.
Nickel: the short-term structural shortage has pushed up the nickel price. The mass production of 4680 batteries on the demand side is imminent, and the trend of high nickel in the future is relatively certain. ė.
3) precious metals: nominal interest rate is difficult to outperform inflation, and the decline of real interest rate supports the rise of gold price. At present, the real interest rate is at a historically low level. We believe that the expectation of raising interest rates has been fully reflected by the market. The weakening of the fundamentals of the US economy may continue to curb the process of raising interest rates. Superimposed on the high inflation caused by the energy crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the real interest rate may further decline. In addition, under the background of global currency overload, the central bank’s demand for gold has increased, and the gold price has a high probability. It is suggested to focus on Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Zhaojin mining industry, Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) .
Risk tip: metal prices have fallen sharply, terminal demand is lower than expected, and global deflation is expected to intensify
