The market value of heavy positions decreased significantly month on month, and the industry valuation level is at the lowest range since 2013:
From the absolute value of positions, the total market value of Q1 computer industry fund heavy positions in 2022 was 80.11 billion yuan, down 20.5% month on month. Under the influence of macroeconomic and defensive market sentiment brought by the epidemic, the computer sector as a growth track led the callback. At present, the dynamic PE of Shenwan computer index is 39x, far lower than the ten-year median of 58x, which is equivalent to the valuation level at the bottom of 2018 and close to the low level of 2012 (30x), with a certain margin of safety and upward repair potential.
Maintain low distribution ratio and improve concentration:
In terms of the proportion of positions, the total market value of SW computer sector, a heavy position of Q1 public funds, accounted for 2.83% in 2022, with a month on month ratio of -0.11pp. The allocation proportion fell for two consecutive quarters and is still in the state of low allocation. Meanwhile, the market value of the top ten heavyweight stocks accounted for 63.4%, up 7.6pp month on month. After the full flowering of Q4 in 2021, the current risk appetite is reduced and the fund refocuses on white horse stocks.
The short-term objective risk is still there, but the two main lines have the layout and cost performance:
Objectively speaking, the demand of downstream enterprises and the implementation, delivery and payment collection of projects are affected by multiple factors such as repeated epidemic, peripheral interest rate increase and contraction, macroeconomic downturn and exchange rate fluctuation. Although the industry has undergone significant adjustment since the beginning of the year, it still faces the risk of unreasonable decline in the short term. From the bottom up, the leading companies in the computer industry mainly focus on high growth tracks such as smart cars and cloud computing. They are highly resistant to risks such as the epidemic and have less periodic disturbance. The Q1 performance in 2022 is still bright, the fundamentals have not been weakened, and the valuation has reached a reasonable range. In the short term, the continuous depreciation of RMB has brought benefits to some companies with large overseas business. With the implementation of the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve or the opportunity of oversold rebound; In the medium and long term, the computer is still an excellent track with large space, long track and undervalued value. At present, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the following two main lines and wait for the macro inflection point.
Industry Xinchuang (weakly sensitive to the epidemic and strong performance certainty): operators, banks and other downstream entities have abundant funds and strong resistance to the epidemic. The relevant bidding is expected to continue to advance according to the original rhythm. The domestic substitution of servers and other infrastructure is in the outbreak stage, superimposed with the dual catalysis of digital economy, and the certainty of high growth of medium and short-term performance is very strong. , .
Smart cars (high prosperity, long-term trend upward): Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) and other intelligent car related targets showed high performance in the first quarter against the trend. Once the market turning point appears, it is expected to lead the rebound of the sector. It is suggested to pay attention to: Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , etc.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the progress of the project; Macroeconomic pressure; Rising prices of raw materials; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Significant changes in sector policies; The R & D progress is less than expected.
