Event: on April 25, the State Council issued the opinions of the general office of the State Council on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption, proposing to steadily increase automobile and other bulk consumption.
Comments:
There are few new incremental policies. The automobile related policies in the above documents include: ① no new automobile purchase restriction measures shall be added in various regions, the automobile purchase restriction shall be gradually abolished according to local conditions, and the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management shall be promoted; ② Establish and improve the management mechanism of automobile refitting industry and accelerate the development of automobile aftermarket; ③ Completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of second-hand cars, ④ study further relaxing the restrictions on pickup trucks entering the city, ⑤ support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles. On the whole, there are few new incremental policies.
In the policy toolbox to stimulate automobile consumption, purchase tax reduction is an option with greater strength. Summarizing the automobile consumption promotion policies issued in the past, there are mainly two types: 1) car purchase subsidies, including the forms of going to the countryside and exchanging old cars for new ones. The subsidy policies are generally issued by the local governments with more developed automobile industry (the subsidies are paid by the local government finance, the consumption tax belongs to the central government, and the value-added tax is 50% of the central and local governments respectively). 2) The purchase tax reduction policy is issued by the Central Government: ① in 200910, preferential policies will be implemented for the purchase tax of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less (the tax rate will be reduced by 5% in 2009 and 7.5% in 10 years), resulting in a significant increase in the growth rate of automobile sales from 4.6% in 2008 to 45.5% and 32.4% in 200910; ② From October 2015 to December 2017, in order to hedge against the downward impact of macro-economy, the purchase tax reduction policy was introduced again, which greatly boosted automobile consumption. The sales growth rate in 15-17 years was 4.6%, 13.5% and 3.6% respectively.
Analysis on the possibility of reduction and exemption of purchase tax. 1) Necessity: the automobile industry is the ballast of China's macro-economy. China's automobile consumption in 21 years was 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.9% of the total social zero; The income of automobile manufacturing industry is 8.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.7% of the income of all industrial enterprises. 2) The automobile industry is of great significance to stable employment: the automobile industry chain is long and attracts more employed people. According to the statistics of the Automobile Talent Research Association, the number of direct employees in the automobile industry exceeded 5.5 million in 2019. 3) Possible negative effects: at present, new energy vehicles are exempted from purchase tax, and the purchase tax preference of fuel vehicles will reduce the comparative advantage of new energy vehicles. Considering that cars are typical offline consumption, we look forward to the automobile consumption promotion policy after the epidemic is controlled and travel returns to normal.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the impact of the epidemic on automobile production and sales is more than expected. In the medium and long term, we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the reconstruction of the automobile industry pattern. It is suggested to layout the automobile sector on bargain hunting: 1) after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of the whole vehicle is more reasonable; The prospect of independent rise is promising. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Smart cars, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) . ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic on automobile production and marketing exceeded expectations, and the automobile consumption promotion policy was less than expected.
