\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 363 Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) )
Event: 22q1 revenue + 62% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent company + 31% year-on-year higher than expected.
22q1 company realized: 1) revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 1.25/2.0/180 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 62% / + 31% / + 31%. Under the high base of 21q1, the profit of 22q2 exceeded the expectation, and the expected profit growth rate of the market was 20% – 30%. The high profit increase is mainly due to the effective cost control of functional skin care business. It is estimated that the sales expense rate of skin care sector in the whole year of 21 will be about 60%, which is now reduced to about 55%, and the proportion of super head may be further reduced.
2) according to the adjusted profit calculation, it is estimated that 22q1 includes equity incentive expenses of about 35 million and depreciation and amortization of Tianjin factory of about 25 million; The loss of innovation business exceeded 22 million. Estimated 22q1 adjusted profit (considering the impact of tax rate): excluding equity incentive, the profit reached 230 million (+ 50%); Excluding equity incentive + amortization, the profit was 250 million (+ 63%).
3) profitability: the gross profit margin / net profit margin was 77.1% / 15.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 1.6 / – 3.8pp. The decrease in gross profit margin was related to the adjustment of freight to operating cost in the new accounting regulations. The decrease in net profit margin was mainly due to the further increase in the proportion of cosmetics revenue. The ratio of sales / management / R & D expenses was 45.1% / 6.3% / 6.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6 / + 0.8 / + 1.5pp.
The growth rate of functional skin care was 90%, and the muscle activity was beautiful, with an increase of more than 500%
1) functional skin care products business: the expected revenue exceeds 850 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90% +, exceeding the expectation, accounting for about 70%. According to the brand, runbaiyan has a year-on-year increase of + 40-45%; Cuddy + 70% – 75% year on year; Mibel + 70% – 80% year-on-year; Among them, muscle activity was + 500% year-on-year, much higher than expected. Last year, the revenue was about 30 million, 22q1 was nearly 200 million, and the revenue volume was similar to that of runbaiyan / kuadi. The increase of muscle activity was mainly driven by the water volume of explosive brown rice. Differentiated positioning of the company’s four major brands and finding representative advantageous categories. Runbaiyan’s second throw, Cuddy’s cream products, mibel and muscle active water dairy products have all gone through, expanding from single product → single category → multiple categories, single active substance → multiple active substances.
2) raw material business: the estimated revenue is RMB 200250 million, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%. Over the past 21 years, the company has earned more than 10 million yuan in raw materials of other bioactive substances. Potential varieties include ekdoyne, GABA, ergothioin, collagen, etc., which help the company further build a bioactive platform.
3) medical terminal business: the estimated revenue is nearly 150 million yuan, basically the same. The company is deeply engaged in hyaluronic acid and will create a full layout of Shuiguang, hyaluronic acid filling, recycled materials and repair products in the future. Recently, the company acquired 51% equity of Yierkang biology and arranged collagen sponge and artificial bone products; The self-developed recombinant collagen is in progress in an orderly manner. In the future, it is expected to realize the industrial chain coordination of collagen raw materials + end products and replicate the successful experience of hyaluronic acid.
4) food business: the brand pattern is initially opened. In the 21st year, the company launched functional food brands such as black zero, shuijiquan (hyaluronic acid water), Wuxiang corner (hyaluronic acid fruit wine). Promote online and offline channels together. At present, the company has set up a number of food R & D centers; In the future, beauty, joint health and sleep health will be the main application directions.
Profit forecast and Valuation:
The company takes hyaluronic acid as the core to build a platform enterprise for bioactive substances, and the raw material business is growing steadily driven by hyaluronic acid + other bioactive substances; The 21-year strategic adjustment of medical beauty business needs to be released. Functional skin care products are strong. With effective publicity investment, brand awareness continues to improve, and all brands are expected to maintain rapid growth. It is expected that the income in 22-24 years will be 7.07 billion yuan, 9.08 billion yuan and 11.04 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 43%, 29% and 22% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.11 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan and 1.98 billion yuan respectively, with a simultaneous increase of 42%, 39% and 29%. The current market value corresponds to pe50, 36 and 28x. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term development potential of the company and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of R & D and registration of new products is less than expected; Loss of core personnel or technology leakage; B-end or C-end competition intensifies; Outbreak or other black swan events affecting the consumption environment.
