\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022. 2022q1 achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.8%, a beer sales volume of 235000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 71.046 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.45%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 58.981 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.3%.
Q1 volume and price increased simultaneously, and the reduction of discount driven the increase of ton price. In 2022q1, the company's sales volume / price per ton / cost per ton were + 5.3% / 7.1% / 10.7% year-on-year respectively, achieving a simultaneous increase in volume and price. From the perspective of products, the sales volume of pure draft beer was + 18.2% year-on-year, accounting for + 5.4pct to 49.1%, of which 97 pure draft beer achieved a sales volume of 38000 tons, accounting for + 50.4% year-on-year, accounting for + 4.8pct to 16% year-on-year, and the sales volume of tank products accounted for + 3.6pct to 38.0% year-on-year. The product structure has improved significantly. It is expected that the company will take the initiative to reduce the discount in, The increase of Q1 ton price is significantly accelerated compared with + 0.4% year-on-year in 2021.
The cost rose significantly, the high-end offset the pressure, and the gross sales difference was basically flat. The cost per ton of Q1 increased by + 10.7% year-on-year, driving the gross profit margin of sales from - 1.9pct to 40.4% year-on-year. We expect that it includes the impact of changes in accounting standards (transportation costs are included in costs rather than sales expenses). We expect that if the disturbance of transportation expenses transfer costs is excluded, the year-on-year increase in the cost per ton caused by the rise of raw materials is expected to be about the median, and the gross sales difference of Q1 company is 24.3%, up from - 0.1pct year-on-year, which is basically the same, The upgrading of product structure effectively offset the pressure of rising costs, and the overall profitability is stable.
The non net interest rate is stable, and the asset impairment loss affects the performance. In 2022q1, the company's sales / management / financial expense ratio was 16.1% / 7.8% / - 6.6% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 1.8 / - 0.9 / + 0.5pct respectively, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company / net interest rate deducting non attributable to the parent company was 8.1% / 6.8%, with a year-on-year ratio of - 0.9% / - 0.1% respectively. The decrease in non recurring income was mainly due to the decrease in government subsidies and investment income. The profit and loss of government subsidies / changes in fair value in Q1 was 1546.1389000, with a year-on-year ratio of - 17.4% / - 84.0%, At the same time, the provision for asset impairment loss in 2022q1 is 13.868 million yuan (accounting for 1.6% of the current revenue), which is larger than the loss of 4.318 million in 2021q1, which has a certain impact on the current performance.
The repeated impact of the epidemic is small, and attention is paid to the boosting effect of high-end on the apparent ton price. At present, the repeated impact of the epidemic situation in the company's core market is gradually fading. With the warming of the weather, the dynamic sales of beer has entered the peak season. The company used to increase the market of high-end products represented by 97 pure raw materials with discount and market publicity. It is expected that the peak season is expected to continue to contribute to the optimization of product structure. During the year, beer enterprises are facing industrial cost pressure. It is expected that Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) apparent ton price is expected to maintain a high growth rate and contribute to the profitability of the company.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 4.95/5.32/5.58 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.1% / 7.4% / 4.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 7.4/8.4/9.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.4% / 13.7% / 10.0%. At present, the corresponding PE is 22 / 19 / 18x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The epidemic situation is lower than expected, and the risk is higher than expected.
