\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 81 Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) )
In 2021, the revenue was + 132% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 256% year-on-year. The performance met the expectations of the previous announcement. The company achieved a revenue of 976 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 131.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 47 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 256.0%. 2021q4 / 2022q1 achieved revenue of 521 / 353 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 196.4% / + 363.5% and a month on month increase of + 266% / – 32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3 / 18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 159.3% / + 774.5%. The analysis is as follows: 1) as the shortage of chips is alleviated + 2021q4 Weima & Geely new models are put on sale + 2021q3 some orders are postponed to Q4 for confirmation, so 2021q4 revenue has increased significantly month on month; 2022q1 is affected by Holiday & Epidemic (the impact of epidemic is relatively limited), the overall delivery decreases month on month, and the company’s revenue is concentrated in q3-q4 every year. 2) In order to ensure the smooth delivery of new models, layout the new generation of “integrated core”, platform products and other new products, and supplement the software capability, the R & D and management expenses increased significantly.
The volume of new energy passenger vehicles is large. With the easing of the problem of raw material supply, the landing of production capacity and the improvement of internal platform capacity, it is expected to continue to increase rapidly from 2022. 1) Passenger cars: in 2021, the revenue reached 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 286%, mainly contributed by Wuling Hongguang mini, Geely, Weima, etc; Among them, the revenue of assembly products accounted for more than 50% (the revenue of power assembly / power assembly was RMB 220 million / 280 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 173% / + 1760%). Looking forward to 2022, the sales structure of new energy vehicles is expected to tilt to the A / A + model where the company has the advantage. The company has full orders, and the early Weima and Geely models continue to be sold. The early fixed-point projects such as SAIC GM Wuling Kaijie, Xiaopeng P7, Great Wall HaoMao and Nezha Hezhong are expected to be implemented. Continuous expansion of new customers: it covers a number of new forces in vehicle manufacturing, independent brand vehicle enterprises and commercial vehicle customers, and the products are dominated by power / power supply assembly. 2) Commercial vehicles: bind ZF, Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) , SAIC Maxus, etc., and grow rapidly together with medium and low-speed vehicles. 3) Capacity: the transformation of Zhuhai Base and capacity expansion & Heze phase II of Shandong is progressing smoothly, escorting the delivery of tasks.
Under the background of rising raw material prices, localization substitution + large-scale effect helps to repair profits. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 20.71%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.22pct; 2022q1 gross profit margin was 16.17%, year-on-year -4.62pct; The year-on-year net interest rate of the parent company is 672t + 2021.2% and the year-on-year net interest rate of the parent company is 461.5%. Our judgment on profit margin: with the large volume of 2021q4 multi model products, the delivery structure of the company tends to be stable. Due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the failure to reflect the scale effect of driving assembly, the gross profit margin decreased significantly year-on-year; Looking forward to 2022, with the “multi pronged approach” of client price negotiation, the improvement of the localization rate of core devices and the large volume of assembly products, we expect the gross profit margin to stabilize and recover, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 5% + level (considering the impact of two-phase equity incentives).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 of 198 million yuan and 372 million yuan respectively. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to be 541 million yuan, corresponding to the current price PE of 25X, 13X and 9x respectively, and give the target price of 90.65 yuan, corresponding to 35 times PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of passenger car related products is lower than expected, the price competition is intensified, and the epidemic situation in China is intensified.
