\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: the company achieved an operating revenue of 33.62 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.3%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.4%.
The growth rate of revenue on a month on month basis was better than that of sales volume, and the average price of single vehicle increased. The company sold 284000 new cars in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.3% and a month on month increase of – 28.6%. In the same period, the company’s revenue was + 8.0% year-on-year and – 26.3% month on month, which was better than the sales volume. We think it was mainly due to the increase of the company’s average price of single vehicle. In 2022q1, the average price of a single car of the company reached 119000 yuan, an increase of 29.1% year-on-year and 3.2% month on month. As tank brand (tank 500), Euler brand (Ballet cat, punk cat, lightning cat) and wey brand (Mocha dht-phev) launch models with high single price, we expect the average single price of the company to further increase.
The profit performance is stable, and the improvement of gross profit margin is mainly due to the optimization of product structure. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was – 0.3% year-on-year and – 8.3% month on month, with a stable performance, mainly due to the obvious increase in gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 17.18%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.05pct and a month on month increase of + 1.88pct. We judged that it was mainly the optimization of product structure that hedged the negative impact of the weakening of scale effect caused by the rise of raw material prices and lack of core. 2022q1’s models based on lemon, tank and coffee intelligent technology brands account for 70.4%, intelligent models account for 84.5%, and high-profit tank brands account for 9.1%. The product structure is optimized. We believe that the shortage of chips and the epidemic have not fully released the company’s production capacity and weakened the scale effect. With the improvement of factors such as core shortage and rising raw material prices, the profitability of the company is expected to be further improved.
System reform and technological innovation build the company’s long-term core competitiveness. The company changed the underlying structure, changed its corporate positioning from “automobile manufacturing enterprise” to “user service operation enterprise”, and changed its business model to “product + software + service”, which laid a foundation for it to effectively tap market demand. A number of R & D achievements of the company have been implemented successively. At present, lemon DHT hybrid technology, hydrogen energy related technology, 3.0T + 9at / 9hat super powertrain and other technologies have been carried on the products. In the critical period of electric intellectualization reform in the automotive industry, the company is a traditional independent vehicle enterprise that has transformed earlier and implemented relevant products. The long-term accumulation of core technologies and the product strategy of various brands focusing on subdivided categories are an important help for the company’s continuous transformation of electric intellectualization.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: the company is deeply engaged in the field of electric intelligence, adheres to the upward brand, and realizes the continuous optimization of product structure. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.73 billion yuan, 11.08 billion yuan and 12.65 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.94, 1.20 and 1.37 yuan respectively. The closing price on April 25, 2022 corresponds to the PE value from 2022 to 2024, which is 24, 19 and 17 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the mitigation of core shortage in the industry is less than expected; The sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The development of new energy technology is less than expected.
