\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 4.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.0%; Among them, single Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.3%. At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.1%; 22q1 performance meets market expectations.
The high growth of Dongzang leads the upgrading, and the growth rate in the province is bright. 1. In terms of products, in 2021, the revenue of medium and high-grade Baijiu was 3.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +44.7%, and that of ordinary Baijiu was 1.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +10.7%; The potential energy of Dongzang series is released. It is expected that the proportion of Dongzang in the whole year will increase to about 45%, driving the optimization of product structure. 2. In terms of subregions, the province achieved an income of 2.73 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 36.8%, accounting for 63.5%; The revenue outside the province was 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.1%; In addition, the company promoted the survival of the fittest dealers, adding 20 dealers in the province and reducing 4 dealers outside the province. 3. Thanks to the accelerated release of the potential energy of Dongzang, the number of returnees in Anhui increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the income and profits increased beautifully, making a good start.
Profitability improved significantly and cash flow continued to improve. 1. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.5%, mainly due to the upgrading of product structure driven by the large volume of Dongzang series; The expense rate decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 15.1%, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points and the management expense rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points; The annual net interest rate increased by 2.6 percentage points to 30.3%, and the profitability continued to improve. 2. The proportion of 22q1 cave reservoir continued to increase, driving the gross profit margin to increase by 1.7 percentage points to 71.4% year-on-year; The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, and the net interest rate increased by 2.8 percentage points to 35.1%; In addition, the cash inflow from 22q1 operating activities was 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.2%. At the end of the first quarter, the contract liabilities were 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.9%, and the cash flow continued to improve.
The growth potential of cave reservoir is strengthened, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released continuously. 1. With strong economic growth in Anhui and Jiangsu, the mainstream price belt has been upgraded at a fast pace, and the mainstream price belt of Dongzang precision card slot has a clear path of continuous high growth relying on the advantages of strong product power and strong channel thrust. 2. The company adopts the operation mode of small business system + deep distribution to build an aggressive and learning sales team, steadily improve the treatment of marketing personnel and promote the sinking and intensive cultivation of channels; In terms of regional development, the company strives to build a model market, copy the mode and playing method of Hefei and other markets to Wuhu, Anqing, Suzhou and other markets, and the potential market increment can be expected. 3. Dongcang series is in a period of rapid growth. It is estimated that Dongcang will account for about 45% in 21 years, which has broad room for improvement compared with the original pulp of the year; At present, Dong 6 / 9 has become a popular single product, which will continue the trend of rapid volume. Dong 16 / 20 is a sub high-end price band, and the consumption heat is gradually rising under the focus and cultivation of the company; The upgrading path of Dongzang is clear and sustainable, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.30 yuan, 2.96 yuan and 3.74 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23 times, 18 times and 14 times respectively. The potential energy of Dongzang series will be accelerated, the upgrading of product structure will continue, the performance will be explosive, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic
