\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 390 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) )
Event:
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved a revenue of 2.678 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 68.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.4%; After excluding equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company should be 304 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.61%. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue reached 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 86.54%. 22q1’s profit was less than we expected.
Comments:
The profit margin is under pressure in the short term, and we look forward to the subsequent release of R & D and marketing investment results
The profit of 22q1 company decreased significantly year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the epidemic and the shortage of global chip supply, and the cost of raw materials and logistics increased greatly; Meanwhile, with the company’s continuous investment in global marketing network and R & D strength, the rates of sales, management and R & D expenses increased by 2.8/1.8/4.1pct year-on-year respectively, which dragged down the short-term profit performance.
The layout of overseas high gross profit market has greatly increased the shipment volume of energy storage
In the 21st year, the company’s sales volume of energy storage inverter was + 173.12% year-on-year, and the revenue of energy storage products was + 201% year-on-year. Affected by the rise of electricity price, the overseas household energy storage market represented by Europe has strong demand, and we believe that overseas has high tolerance for price. The company’s overseas market layout is earlier. In 21 years, 64% of the overall revenue came from overseas and about 31% of the inverter revenue came from Europe. The product quality has been recognized by the high-end market.
The revenue of grid connected inverter has increased significantly, and the photovoltaic industry has maintained a high boom
The company’s sales volume of grid connected inverters in 21 years was about 447200, with a year-on-year increase of 35% and a year-on-year increase of 43%. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the global photovoltaic installed capacity reached 170gw in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 31%, continuing the high landscape; From January to February of 22 years, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic in China has reached 10.86gw, exceeding the sum of the installed capacity from January to May of 21 years; It is estimated that from 2022 to 2025, the global average annual installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 232286gw, driving the continuous expansion of the market space of the inverter industry.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is expected that the company will continue to focus on the overseas high-end market in the future, and the brand barrier will gradually increase; In 2012, Q1 contract liabilities were + 139% year-on-year, and there were sufficient orders on hand. The growth rate of the company’s energy storage business exceeded our previous expectations, and the profit forecast was raised. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 20222023 will be 4.7/67 billion yuan (original value: 3.7/4.9 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 650 / 970 million yuan (original value: 650 / 860 million yuan). At the same time, the 24-year profit forecast will be increased to 9.7 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.44 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 7.39/11.06/16.34 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to 24.5/16.4/11.1 times of PE, Due to the current downward trend in the valuation center of comparable companies, we give the company 30 times PE in 22 years, with a target price of 221.7 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
International trade protection risk; Chip shortage intensifies; The global PV installation is less than expected; Safety accident of energy storage power station.
