\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 176 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) )
Event: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) released the first quarterly report of 2022, and 22q1 company achieved total operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non net profit of RMB 5.13/18.4/1.44 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 28% / 73% / 36%.
Comments:
22q1 roving maintains high prosperity, and overseas demand is better than that in China. The roving sales volume of 22q1 company was about 530000 tons, with a slight decrease compared with the same period. Mainly due to the early delivery of some customers at the end of 21, the sales volume of some products was advanced to 21q4; On the other hand, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta in March 22 also had a certain impact on the sales volume of 22q1. It is estimated that the net profit of 22q1 roving ton deduction is about 2443 yuan / ton, with an increase on the same month on month basis. The average price and net profit of 22q1 ton have reached a new high in this cycle, and the high outlook of roving market continues. From a regional perspective, it is speculated that the export demand is better than that of China. According to Zhuo Chuang information, China exported 545000 tons of glass fiber and products from January to march of 22 years, a year-on-year increase of + 50%. At the same time, the company announced that it would carry out cold repair and technical transformation of Tongxiang roving production line with an annual output of 120000 tons. After completion, the design annual production capacity of the production line will be 200000 tons, and the commencement time will be started in time according to the market situation and the operation of the original production line.
The price of 22q1 electronic cloth fell month on month, and 300 million meters of production capacity will be added in 22 years. The sales volume of 22q1 electronic cloth of the company was about 115 million meters, a year-on-year increase of + 15%; It is speculated that the average price including tax is 4.5 yuan / m, which has further declined month on month. By the end of 22q1, the average price including tax of electronic cloth has reached 3.0-3.5 yuan / M; It is estimated that the net profit of 22q1 electronic cloth is about 150 million yuan. It is estimated that in 22 years, the company will put into operation a new electronic cloth production line with a capacity of 300 million meters. At that time, the company’s electronic cloth production capacity will reach 950 million meters. At the same time, the company announced that it plans to carry out cold repair and technical transformation for the production line with an annual output of 30000 tons of electronic yarn and 100 million meters of electronic cloth. After the technical transformation is completed, the annual production capacity of the electronic yarn production line will be increased to 50000 tons (supporting the production of 160 million meters of electronic cloth). At the same time, a glass fiber tank furnace wire drawing production line with an annual output of 15000 tons and an electronic cloth production line with an annual output of 50 million meters will be shut down. We judge that the price of electronic cloth has reached the bottom range, and the subsequent price of electronic cloth may remain stable. With the release of the company’s new electronic cloth production capacity, the electronic cloth business will contribute more profits to the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the downstream of 22q1 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) roving business maintained a high outlook, and the average product price and ton profit level reached a new high in this cycle; Due to the downward impact of the industry price, the product price of the electronic cloth business fell month on month, but it is judged that the electronic cloth price has reached the bottom range and may remain stable in the future. We are optimistic about the further improvement of the profitability brought by the high prospect in the roving field and the release of the company’s new production capacity in 22 years, and maintain the company’s EPS forecast of 1.59 yuan, 1.43 yuan and 1.46 yuan from 2022 to 2024. The current price corresponds to the dynamic P / E ratio of about 9x in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the demand for glass fiber is less than the expected risk; Risk of falling price of glass fiber products; Risk of rising raw fuel prices; Risk of exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation; Risks of overseas subsidiaries affected by local policies, etc.
