\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 667 Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) )
Investment summary:
Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) is a leader in the field of domestic funded gasoline vehicle engine management system (EMS), with the first market share in the field of N1 commercial vehicles. It is a small giant enterprise "specialized and special new" of the Ministry of industry and information technology and an invisible champion in the subdivided field of Hubei Province. From a medium and long-term perspective, the company still has great potential in the following two aspects:
EMS has entered the passenger car market of nearly 50 billion yuan from commercial vehicles to realize the substitution for foreign-funded enterprises under the background of autonomy and control.
Promote the layout of hybrid, pure electric and intelligent fields and open up a new growth space. The company is a model of technology team entrepreneurship, with profound technology accumulation. Recently, disturbed by the industry, the performance is close to the bottom.
The product takes the engine management system as the core and covers many fields such as hybrid, pure electric and intelligent network connection.
Delphi will introduce talents, encourage the technology team and consolidate the advantages of Delphi.
Rapid growth, 18-21 net profit cagr173%, 21 years disturbed by the industry, the performance hit the bottom. Engine EMS: Based on commercial use and entering into passenger use
EMS is the core component of the engine system, with high technical and industrialization barriers. The company is one of the few domestic enterprises that have achieved technological breakthroughs, and its products are distributed in commercial and passenger fields.
The market share of category N1 is 60%, and that of category M1 is only 1%. After the company's technological breakthrough, there is great potential for domestic substitution.
GDI technology has been developed, which can be applied to the field of passenger cars, and the value of a single car has been increased to 2500 yuan. Hybrid and pure electricity: opening up new space
In the field of hybrid, 48V micro hybrid, P2 structure hybrid, incremental hybrid and other technologies are developed. GDI, PFI and other technologies are in hand in the field of passenger vehicles, and the field of commercial vehicles is expected to expand its advantages by relying on the implementation of new emissions.
In the field of pure electricity, MCU, VCU and other products have been improved, and an integrated supply capacity has been established. In terms of business strategy, VCU with higher technical content and higher gross profit is the main business, and its business has covered most commercial vehicle enterprises.
Investment suggestions:
Based on the above assumptions, we estimate that the operating revenue of the company in 21-23 years will be 840 million yuan, 1.2 billion yuan and 1.66 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 140 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 320 million yuan respectively, the earnings per share will be 2.7 yuan, 4.6 yuan and 6.3 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 37x, 22x and 16x respectively.
The company is a scarce independent target in the field of engine EMS. The field of commercial vehicles has achieved success, and the domestic substitution potential in the field of passenger vehicles is huge. Based on the valuation level of comparable companies, the company will be given a valuation of 35 times PE in 2022, with a reasonable share price of 160.3 yuan. Covering the company for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The epidemic control is less than expected, the progress of new projects is less than expected, the progress of customer expansion is less than expected, the risk of intensified industry competition, and the automobile hybrid is less than expected.
