\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 151 Beijing Bdstar Navigation Co.Ltd(002151) )
Core view
Beidou is a leader in core devices, focusing on the main business and accelerating development. The company’s main business is the R & D and production of Beidou’s core components (chips, boards, antennas, etc.). The company’s team has strong technical background and has become the leader of Beidou’s domestic core components after more than 20 years of precipitation. At the same time, two auxiliary sectors, automobile intelligent network connection and microwave ceramic components, are arranged. In recent years, the company has continuously stripped off its non main business, focused on “Beidou +”, strengthened equity incentive and driven its performance back to the growth track.
Beidou satellite navigation market continues to grow, and the company is expected to fully benefit. According to our calculation, the total market scale of China’s high-precision board and antenna is expected to increase to 6.5 billion yuan in 2025. Considering the standard precision market and special market, the overall scale will be more than 10 billion yuan; The high-precision positioning service market is expected to reach 16 billion. The company is in a leading position in China in the fields of chip, board and antenna, and has begun to layout the positioning service market, which is expected to fully benefit from the high prosperity dividend of satellite navigation track.
Intelligent network connection and ceramic components have broad prospects. In the field of automotive intelligent networking, the market scale of intelligent cockpit in China will reach 110 billion yuan in 2025, and the supporting high-precision positioning terminal and software outsourcing market also have huge space. However, compared with China’s leading companies, the company’s volume is still small, and its market share needs to be improved. In the field of ceramic components, the company focuses on LTCC. In the 5g era, there is strong demand in the base station and consumer market. It is estimated that the global market scale will be close to US $2 billion in 2025. At present, overseas manufacturers occupy a dominant position and there is huge room for domestic substitution. The company is increasing its production capacity layout and is expected to increase its market share. The company’s core competitiveness: technology accumulation, business collaboration, independent and controllable. (1) In the field of Beidou core components, it has a deep technical accumulation, and the product performance is among the best in the industry selection; (2) Beidou’s basic products, automotive intelligent network and microwave ceramic devices have the cooperation of technology and clients; (3) The company realizes independent control in Beidou core chip, board card and ceramic device technology.
Profit forecast and Valuation: optimistic about the growth potential of the company in the new development stage. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 300 / 450 / 650 million (+ 47% / 50% / 45%), EPS will be RMB 0.58/0.88/1.27 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 47 / 31 / 22 times respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies and the absolute valuation method, the reasonable value range of the company is expected to be 32.0-39.4 yuan, which is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of product price decline and gross profit decline caused by fierce competition; Repeated epidemic and other factors affect production; The downstream market demand is lower than expected.
