\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
The frozen baking business of 21q4 achieved a rapid growth of 70% + and the operation of 22q1 was under short-term pressure due to the impact of the epidemic. The company achieved a revenue of 2.817 billion yuan (+ 55.66%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 283 million yuan (+ 21.98%) in 21 years. If the impact of withdrawing excess performance incentive scheme and equity incentive plan expenses (about 35 million yuan) is excluded, the non attributable net profit of 304 million yuan (+ 34.51%) is deducted; Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 856 million yuan (+ 40.43%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 86 million yuan (16.58%). In terms of business, the revenue of frozen baked goods / baked goods raw materials in the whole year of 21 was RMB 1.718 billion / 1.096 billion respectively, with an increase of 79.70% / 28.65% respectively. Among them, frozen baked goods performed well and maintained a high-speed growth of 70% + in 21q4. In terms of channels, the sales revenue of distribution / direct sales / retail sales was RMB 1.835 billion / 9.60 billion / 20 million respectively, with an increase of 30% / 145% / 140% respectively. The large volume of large single products such as cassava and frozen cake in Sam's store (direct sales) is the main source of growth, and the production of Henan factory provides capacity support. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 630 million yuan (+ 8.83%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40 million yuan (- 45.29%). If the impact of about 20 million yuan of share based payment expenses for equity incentive is excluded, the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 55 million yuan (- 23.97%) is deducted, which is mainly due to the pre Spring Festival and the impact of the epidemic on the normal business of bakeries and supermarkets.
The cost is rising, the gross profit margin is under pressure, and the profitability is expected to be improved under the improvement of product structure. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin of the company was 34.9%, which was greatly affected by the price increase of raw materials such as oil and glucose powder (up 30% +), with a year-on-year decrease of 3.37pct. At the same time, the company strengthened the management and control of expenses. With the expansion of revenue volume, the sales rate decreased by 1.06 PCT year-on-year; Under the influence of the increase of employee salary and share based payment expenses, the management rate increased by 1.38pct year-on-year, and finally the company realized a net interest rate of 10.05% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 2.78pct. 22q1 company achieved a gross profit margin of 33.09%, which decreased by 3.4pct year-on-year due to the rise of raw material prices. Excluding the impact of share based payment expenses, the net profit margin decreased by 3.1pct year-on-year. We believe that with the increase of the proportion of high gross profit frozen baking business and the expansion of sales volume, the profitability of the company is expected to improve. In addition, if the price of raw materials decreases in the future, it is also expected to bring some performance flexibility.
Risk warning: raw material cost and price fluctuation; Food safety risks; Capacity release is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies.
Investment suggestion: high growth track, high barrier leader, maintain the "buy" rating.
The company is the advantage leader of the high growth segment of frozen baking. The rapid growth of its frozen baking food business in 21q4 has once again verified the high outlook of the industry. Although the company's operation is under pressure in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic and the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, we believe that the medium and long-term growth logic of the company remains unchanged. Therefore, we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.6 billion / 5.9 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28% / 28% / 29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 / 540 / 780 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32% / 43% / 46%; The current share price corresponds to PE 39 / 27 / 18x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
