\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In Q1 of 22 years, the company achieved a revenue of 41.784 billion yuan, yoy + 33.44%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.374 billion yuan, yoy-18.84%, slightly lower than expected.
The company’s revenue continued to grow, mainly benefiting from the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of products in each section, but the performance growth was less than the revenue, which was mainly dragged down by the rise in the price of raw materials. The company actively expanded its chain and production, the Petrochemical new material industry developed rapidly, the layout advantages of the whole industrial chain were prominent, the subsequent growth momentum was sufficient, and the “buy” rating was maintained.
The revenue increased significantly, and the volume and price of each section rose simultaneously: the revenue of Q1 company maintained a growth trend in 22 years, mainly benefiting from the simultaneous rise of the volume and price of its main products. In terms of segments, the sales volume of polyurethane segment reached 950000 tons, yoy + 2.77%, and the revenue reached 15.635 billion yuan, yoy + 13.64%; The sales volume of petrochemical sector reached 3 million tons, yoy + 27.66%, and the revenue reached 18.797 billion yuan; The sales volume of new materials reached 210000 tons, yoy + 27.67%, and the revenue reached 5.067 billion yuan, yoy + 67.96%. The revenue of the petrochemical sector further increased, and the layout of the company’s whole industrial chain further highlighted.
The rise in raw material prices dragged down the company’s performance: the company’s performance fell year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp rise in raw material prices. In the past 22 years, affected by the sharp rise in the prices of basic energy such as global crude oil and natural gas, the energy costs of the company’s main chemical raw materials and European companies rose sharply year-on-year, dragging down the company’s gross profit. The gross profit margin of Q1 company decreased by 11.58pct to 20.55% year-on-year in 22 years. In terms of expenses, the company increased R & D investment. The R & D expense rate increased by 0.05 PCT year-on-year to 1.90%, the sales expense rate decreased by 2.33 PCT year-on-year to 0.61%, the management expense rate decreased by 0.30 PCT year-on-year to 1.04%, and the financial expense rate increased by 0.17 PCT year-on-year to 1.10%.
The price of main products is high, and the demand for refrigerators is expected to increase: at present, the average price of aggregate MDI in Q2 reached 186900 yuan / ton, yoy + 5.07%, the average price of pure MDI reached 217700 yuan / ton, yoy + 7.64%, and the average price of TDI reached 182500 yuan / ton, yoy + 29.28%. Considering that the demand for polyurethane products in China is still at a high level, the company is expected to increase the demand for main materials.
Deepen the layout of new materials industry and ensure long-term growth: the company has continued to invest in new materials, including carbon neutralization related technologies, polyurethane foam degradation and recycling, degradable materials and key monomers, high-performance materials (nylon 12, special PC, Poe, optical grade PMMA, etc.), new energy storage and battery materials, separation and purification and other R & D projects. It is expected to grow from MDI leader to comprehensive chemical leader in the future. With the improvement of industrial chain layout and the increase of product types, the ironing cycle is expected. The company has broad prospects and can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast: considering the impact of the epidemic, the profit forecast is revised down. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 22 / 23 years is 22.76/26.38 billion yuan, yoy-8% / + 16%, corresponding to EPS of 7.25/8.40 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the share price of A-Shares is 10 / 9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The production of new projects is not as expected.
