\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 984 Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) )
Event: Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) released the first quarter report. The company achieved an operating revenue of 1.447 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.12%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 233 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%; 28.73% month on month growth.
Comments:
Sea freight dropped to meet the inflection point, and the price of raw materials remained stable. According to the 2021 annual report, the company’s export and overseas revenue accounted for 87.33% in 2021, and the overseas replacement market is the company’s core sales field. The repeated global epidemic in 2021 caused the tension of shipping containers and the soaring shipping prices, which put pressure on the company’s performance. Since the first quarter of 2022, container tension and shipping prices have been eased. According to the CCFI index, as of April 22, the CCFI US west route index was 233696, down 0.73% from last week and 14.87% from the high of 274524 on February 11. We expect that the sea freight is expected to usher in an obvious inflection point in the second half of the year, and the satisfaction rate of the company’s overseas sales orders is expected to increase rapidly. In terms of raw materials, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of natural rubber has decreased steadily since the high point at the end of the third quarter of 2021. The gross profit margin of the company’s sales in the first quarter of 2022 was 22.53%, up 3.65 PCT month on month.
The second phase of Thailand has been steadily promoted and gradually contributed profits during the year. According to the company’s 2021 annual report, the company’s Thailand phase II expansion project with an annual output of 6 million high-performance semi steel radial tires and 2 million high-performance all steel radial tires has been basically completed, and it is expected to be put into large-scale production in 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s operating revenue increased by 21.12% year-on-year. We analyzed that the growth rate of operating revenue was greater than that of tire sales, and inferred that Thailand’s phase II was gradually increasing in volume, and the product structure was significantly improved. The second phase of Thailand is mainly for the us light truck market, with higher added value, stronger premium ability in corresponding pricing links and higher gross profit margin.
The long-term performance of the equity incentive plan is worth looking forward to. Based on the company’s revenue in 2021, the company aims to increase the revenue by 35%, 70% and 100% in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. The revenue will double in the next three years, and the net profit margin of sales will not be less than 15%. The project of producing 12 million high-performance cars and light truck radial tires in Spain has been accelerated and is expected to start before the end of 2022. At the same time, according to the interactive platform and through the strict review of the headquarters of Volkswagen Group, the company obtained the global official supplier qualification of Volkswagen Group at one time, realizing a major breakthrough in supporting high-end main engine manufacturers. At present, the company is cooperating with Volkswagen, BMW and Audi.
Profit forecast: maintain the profit forecast. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.271 billion, 1.751 billion and 2.251 billion respectively, corresponding to PE of 12.7/9.2/7.1 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the sea freight price fluctuates greatly; The new capacity is less than expected.
