\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 105 Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 445 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.01%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 93 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 112.53%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s revenue was 117 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 12 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.92%.
Comments:
The operating revenue increased steadily, and the revenue structure was further optimized. In 2021, the company’s distributed photovoltaic power station investment and operation (self-supporting distributed photovoltaic power station), distributed photovoltaic development and construction and service (development + EPC + operation and maintenance), photovoltaic product production and sales (photovoltaic module sales) and charging pile investment and operation business realized the main business income of 408 million yuan (+ 17.54%), 9.8433 million yuan (+ 99.44%), 15 million yuan (- 77.97%) and 2.6053 million yuan (+ 822.16%) respectively. Accounting for 93.77%, 2.26%, 3.37% and 0.60% of the main business income respectively. The company focuses on the main business of distributed photovoltaic self-sustaining power stations, with a gross profit margin of 60.22%. With the continuous expansion of the scale of self-sustaining power stations, the power generation revenue and the proportion of revenue continue to increase, the overall operating revenue has increased steadily, and the revenue structure has been further optimized. The company optimized its operation and management. The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio were 0.13% (- 0.18%), 12.65% (- 3.38%) and 16.48% (+ 1.66%) respectively. The electricity revenue from the main business is settled and collected on a monthly basis, with low risk of bad debts, which can provide sustained and stable cash flow. The net operating cash flow of the company in 2021 and 2022q1 were 378 million yuan (+ 47.73%) and 13 million yuan (+ 49.07%) respectively.
The scale of power station continues to increase and the profit of power station continues to rise. By 2021, the total installed capacity of self-sustaining power stations connected to the grid of the company is about 605mw (86mw was added in 2021, and 41.3mw has been approved at present). The annual power generation was 565 million kWh (+ 23.99%), including 120 million kwh of on grid power (+ 4.40%) and 440 million kwh of spontaneous self consumption (+ 31.04%). Since the second half of 2021, the “time of use price” and “power marketization” policies have been continuously promoted. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the price of large industrial power in most provinces in China has increased significantly. The company’s mode of “spontaneous self use and surplus power on the grid” has benefited. The increase of electricity price will have a positive impact on the income of power generation business. Given that the price increase is concentrated in the fourth quarter of the current period, its impact on the performance of this year is still small, and the power shortage will continue in the short term, the “dual control of energy consumption” will be implemented normally, and it is optimistic that the rising price will improve the income of photovoltaic power generation in subsequent years.
Continue to serve high-quality customers and further tap potential business value. Over the years, the company has continued to expand high-quality customers, established itself in the province and radiated across the country. Zhejiang Province has a developed economy, a large demand for industrial power, a complete photovoltaic industry chain, timely and full subsidies, and a high return on investment of distributed photovoltaic power stations. In recent years, the company has been based in the province, radiated across the country, accelerated its layout outside the province, and has opened up markets in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Anhui, Tianjin, Guangdong and other places. By 2021, the installed capacity of power stations built, under construction and to be built outside the province is about 77mw. The company’s self-sustaining power station business needs operation and maintenance, so it maintains a good relationship with customers. Under the guidance of “double carbon”, the company actively connects with customers and provides charging pile business. According to the principle of “revenue first and steady progress”, the company sets the charging pile layout standard and lays charging piles around the existing distributed customer resources. By the end of 2021, the company has laid 177 charging guns in total, and the total scale of charging piles is about 6.7mw. In the future, with the expansion of the investment and operation scale of charging piles and the increase of the number of charging piles and guns, the business income will continue to increase.
Investment suggestion: the company has operated and developed in the field of distributed photovoltaic power station for many years, accumulated strong resource development ability and profound operation and maintenance experience, and has the advantages of relatively complete photovoltaic industry chain. The development advantages of the construction and operation business of distributed photovoltaic power station are more prominent. At present, favorable policies are constantly released, and the development prospect of new energy power operation industry is good. With the policy driven, the installed capacity of the company’s self-contained distributed photovoltaic power station is expected to grow rapidly, helping the company’s performance rise. Considering that the repeated epidemic in China and the change of raw material price may affect the promotion of the company’s projects, and the rise of electricity price will thicken the company’s future income, it is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 673 million yuan, 901 million yuan and 1232 million yuan respectively (originally predicted to be 718 million yuan and 1034 million yuan in 22 and 23 years), with a year-on-year increase of 51.11%, 34.02% and 36.63% respectively, The net profit attributable to the parent company was 216 million yuan, 281 million yuan and 394 million yuan respectively (originally predicted to be 216 million yuan and 322 million yuan in 22 and 23 years), with a year-on-year increase of 96.08%, 30.45% and 39.90% respectively; The corresponding EPS is 0.43, 0.56 and 0.79 respectively, and the PE is 20.54, 15.74 and 11.25 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the promotion of roof distributed photovoltaic policy in the whole county is not as expected; The progress of the project is less than expected; Market competition intensifies.
