\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 390 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) )
The overall performance of the company in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 was poor. On April 25, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 2.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 281 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%. In 2022q1, the company realized a revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 09 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 86.5%.
The company’s shipment volume and revenue maintained rapid growth, and the performance of energy storage business was outstanding. In 2021, the total sales volume of the company’s inverters was about 508000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. Although the tight supply of IGBT chips restricted the production and delivery of the company’s inverters, the company’s annual sales volume still maintained a rapid growth. Among them, in 2021, the sales volume of the company’s energy storage inverters was about 61000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 173%. The energy storage business revenue was 478 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 201%. The energy storage revenue accounted for 18%, and its contribution to the overall growth of the company continued to increase. In addition, in 2021, the company established Yude new energy, a holding subsidiary, and actively arranged the development business of household photovoltaic system. In the first year, the company contributed 175 million yuan, and the business was promoted rapidly. There is a strong demand for distributed photovoltaic and energy storage markets at home and abroad. Based on the inverter business, the company actively expands new fields such as household photovoltaic system, BIPV and household energy storage battery. With the gradual elimination of subsequent constraints on the raw material side, the company’s business development is expected to further accelerate.
The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize, and the substantial increase of expenses during the period will drag down the overall profit. In 2021, the price rise of chips and other materials had a great impact on the profitability of the company. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s grid connected / energy storage inverter was 31.2% / 40.2% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% / 10.6%. At present, there is strong demand in the market outside China. Since the second quarter of 2021, the company has successively raised the product price. We expect that the gross profit margin of the company’s inverter is expected to stabilize in 2022. The overall gross profit margin of 22q1 is about 30.1%, up 3.6% from 21q4. At the same time, after listing in 2020, the company continued to invest heavily in product R & D and new business development, and the rapid growth of personnel and related expenses led to the periodic rise of the expense rate. In 2021, the company’s sales / management / R & D expense rate reached 7.9% / 4.0% / 7.0%, year-on-year – 0.4% / + 0.4% / + 1.3%, and further increased to 10.5% / 5.7% / 10.5% in 2022q1, which caused a great drag on profits. Subsequently, with the gradual expansion of various businesses, it is expected that the expense rate level of the company will be diluted, and the overall profitability is expected to rebound.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize an operating revenue of 49.57/77.85/9.806 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 576890/1.100 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, maintain the “Buy-A” investment rating, and the six-month target price is 200 yuan, corresponding to 30.5 times the P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk tip: the global PV installation is less than expected, the supply of materials is tight, and the market competition is intensified
