\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) 00015)
Summary of the report:
The performance in 2021 is in line with the expectation, and the performance in 2022q1 is slightly higher than the expectation. In 2021, the revenue was 15.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.93%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.323 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.78%, the net profit not attributable to the parent was 2.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 4.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.15%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 4.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.72%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 623 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.49%. The performance of 2022q1 was slightly higher than expected.
The refractive and optometry business grew rapidly and the profitability continued to improve. In the revenue composition of the company, the refractive business accounted for the largest proportion, reaching 36.8% in 2021. The refractive business grew rapidly and the proportion of revenue continued to increase. In 2021, the refractive business revenue was 5.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.93%, and the gross profit margin was 58.95%, a year-on-year increase of 0.8pct, a new high in recent years. The second is the optometry business. In 2021, the revenue of optometry business was 3.378 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.65%. The growth rate was the fastest among many sub sectors. The proportion of revenue continued to increase, reaching 22.52% in 2021 and the gross profit margin was 58.04%, with a year-on-year increase of 1PCT. The cataract sector ranked third in revenue, with steady growth in performance and a slight decline in revenue. In 2021, the revenue was 2.191 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.73%, accounting for 14.61%, and the gross profit margin was 37.67%. The business income of the immediate segment was 1.456 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.33%, accounting for 9.71%, and the gross profit margin was 47.95%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9pct. The business income of the eye back segment was 995 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.79%, and the gross profit margin was 34.52%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9pct. The business income of other diseases was 1.433 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.18%, and the gross profit margin was 47.89%, a year-on-year decrease of 2pct.
The unique hierarchical chain model creates sustainable high profitability. The company’s original hierarchical chain model conforms to China’s national conditions and promotes the rapid development of the company. The company has formed strong core competitiveness in technology, service, brand, scale, talent, scientific research and management. More and more hospitals gradually occupy the largest local market share in terms of outpatient volume, operation volume and operating income. In 2021, the number of outpatients of the company was 101961 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35.07%, and the number of operations was 817300, with a year-on-year increase of 17.65%. There were 174 internal hospitals in the company, with 28 newly added during the year; There were 118 in vivo clinics in China, with an increase of 30 during the year; There were 292 internal hospitals and outpatient clinics in China, with a total increase of 58 during the year.
Gross profit margin hit a new high in recent years. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 51.92%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9pct, and the net profit margin was 16.47%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7pct. The sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate were 9.65%, 14.53% and 0.71% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.7pct, 1.19pct and -0.05pct.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 18.541 billion yuan, 23.141 billion yuan and 29.212 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, 25.1% and 26.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.115 billion yuan, 4.229 billion yuan and 5.834 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, 35.8% and 37.9%, corresponding to PE of 58.27, 42.92 and 31.12 times respectively. Considering the success of the company’s hierarchical chain model and the continuous growth of the market demand for ophthalmic diseases, the company will cover the first, Give a buy rating.
Stock price catalyst: epidemic prevention and control mitigation, national policy driven myopia prevention and control measures upgrading.
Risk factors: medical risk, human resource risk, goodwill impairment risk, covid-19 pneumonia epidemic risk.
