\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 073 Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) )
In 2021, the performance increased by 5%, which is within the performance forecast range. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 278 million yuan / + 8.39%, about 73% higher than that in 2019; The return to parent performance is 37 million yuan / + 5.28%, with a recovery of about 51%; Deduct 31 million yuan / + 2.66% of non performance; EPS0. 56 yuan, in the performance forecast range. Among them, the revenue / performance of 2021h1 company recovered 77% / 74% respectively, but affected by 2021h2 epidemic, the revenue recovered 67% and the performance recovered only about 29%. The company plans to pay out 5 yuan for every 10 shares and increase 5 shares.
RevPAR recovered more than 80% in the whole year, and the scale of the company’s hotels exceeded 70. In 2021, the company’s Hotel revpar231 15 yuan / + 26.19% (ADR + 8.50%; OCC + 8.14 PCT), recovery of about 81%. Q1-Q4, the rental rate of the company recovered to 85% / 103% / 81% / 78% (not listed in the historical quarter of ADR). In 2021, Junting managed and invested more than 70 hotels; Direct sales revenue recovered by about 67% (accommodation / Catering / supporting revenue recovered by 70% / 73% / 47%); The entrusted management revenue recovered by 105%, with a significant increase.
2022q1rvpar is relatively stable, and its performance is still profitable under the epidemic. In 2022q1, the revenue was 62 million yuan / – 3.72%, the parent company’s performance was 3.9247 million yuan / – 44.58%, and the non performance was 2.8716 million yuan / – 48.32%. It was still profitable under the epidemic situation, mainly due to the significant increase of the company’s isolated hotels, and its RevPAR 209 07 yuan / + 5.11% (OCC + 7.58pct, adr-8.23%). In March 2022, the company completed the acquisition and consolidation of Junlan system. The year-on-year decline in performance is expected to be affected by the low profit base in the off-season, the increase in the cost of hotel decoration in Chengdu, the consolidated statement of Junlan department and other businesses such as catering disturbed by the epidemic.
The short-term epidemic tracking and travel policies are relaxed, and the scale expansion is expected to speed up. Although the epidemic still has a significant suppression on China’s hotel industry, some of the company’s core stores are currently isolated hotels, which can be partially hedged at this stage. The company’s stock of direct business has steadily built a basic market. At present, the volume is small. With the help of listing, the expansion is expected to speed up, and there is great potential for scale expansion in the future. In 2021, the company managed and invested in more than 70 hotels. After the acquisition of Junlan and Jinglan in early 2022, the company invested and managed more than 300 hotels. In 2022, the project target of Junting, Junlan and Jinglan was 100. In 2022q1, Junlan brand signed 13 new contracts and achieved a total of more than 200 projects at the end of Q1, with rapid development. At the same time, under the recovery of the industry, the proportion of hotels opened by the company is expected to increase and the increase of incentive management fee is also expected to bring performance flexibility. In addition, based on the support of the listing platform, the company still does not rule out further extension and accelerated expansion in the medium and long term in the future.
Risk tips: epidemic and other systemic risks, store expansion is less than expected, extension integration is less than expected, etc.
Investment suggestion: maintain the overweight rating. Reduce the company’s EPS from 22-24 years to 0.61/1.58/2.24 yuan (compared with 0.95/1.66 yuan in the previous 22-23 years, mainly due to the slightly adjusted assumption of supporting income such as opening stores and catering in 2022 considering the impact of the epidemic), corresponding to pe113 / 44 / 31x. Despite the short-term impact of the epidemic, the company itself is in a new stage of accelerated expansion after listing. In the future, the expansion of stores and the increase of incentive management fees will all have something to see, and maintain the “overweight” rating.
