\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
We have been deeply engaged in IVD and vaccine industry for more than 30 years and adhere to the mode of production, study and research
Founded in 1991, the company is mainly engaged in the R & D and production of in vitro diagnostic reagents and vaccines. The company is committed to transforming the scientific and technological achievements of colleges and universities. Relying on the “national infectious disease diagnostic reagent and vaccine engineering technology research center” jointly built by Yangshengtang and Xiamen University, Xiamen University is responsible for scientific research and Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) is responsible for commercializing the scientific research achievements into products. At present, HIV testing kits, hepatitis E vaccine and HPV vaccine have been successfully listed and sold commercially.
Vaccine sector: HPV vaccine contributes cash flow, and the technical platform has been verified
HPV vaccine can still contribute to the company’s sustained and rapid cash flow in the next three years. 1) HPV vaccine is still in short supply. The penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China is low, and the stock market has not been met. By the end of 2020, China has issued about 273228 million batches. According to the calculation of three injections per person, about 9.1076 million people have completed the whole process of vaccination. At present, there are about 315 million women aged 9-46 in China, with a penetration rate of about 3.7%. At present, the market with a stock of 300 million people has not been met in the short term of 3-5 years. In terms of incremental market, it is expected to increase the vaccination demand of 5 million people every year. 2) There are many HPV vaccine products under development. The clinical endpoints in China are pi12 and Cin2 +. Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) products are listed first and have the advantage of first mover. At present, a total of 16 HPV vaccine products are being developed in China, of which 7 products are in clinical phase 3. The fastest progress is that both Bowei biology and Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) the 9-valent HPV vaccine have completed the enrollment of clinical trials. 3) In October 2021, the company obtained whopq certification for HPV bivalent vaccine, and plans to gradually register and export to 30 countries in the next three years, opening the second growth curve in overseas Asian, African and Latin American markets.
Prokaryotic expression platform is the core competitiveness of the company’s vaccine sector for sustainable development. Compared with the eukaryotic expression system of yeast and insect cell baculovirus, E. coli prokaryotic expression platform has the characteristics of low production cost, high efficiency, easy scale-up and high security. At present, the prokaryotic expression platform of E. coli has proved its universality. Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) has developed hepatitis E vaccine, HPV bivalent vaccine and HPV bivalent vaccine on the basis of this platform. In the future, the platform will continue to be applied to the research and development of the third generation cervical cancer vaccine and rotavirus vaccine. The company’s future pipelines include 9-valent HPV, broad-spectrum HPV, 20 valent pneumonia vaccine, rotavirus vaccine, etc.
In vitro diagnostics: the whole product line layout provides stable cash flow
The whole product line layout of the company’s in vitro diagnosis product line, including immunity, molecule, POCT and other fields, provides IVD overall solutions. Adhering to the integration of raw materials IVD products, the company has established more than 300 raw material product lines in more than 10 categories. In the overseas market, the company has entered the international market through the advantages of differentiated products. The products with technical advantages include infectious disease product lines such as AIDS urine test reagents, hepatitis E series test reagents and tuberculosis IGRA test reagents, which have covered more than 40 countries and regions in Europe and the Americas. In addition, the company has signed cooperation agreements with Beckman Kurt company and Japan XISEN Meikang company on infectious disease diagnostic reagents.
Profit forecast: Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) hpv bivalent vaccine and in vitro diagnosis product line will continue to contribute revenue to the company. In the future, with the gradual release of HPV vaccine production capacity, the company’s revenue is expected to be 10.068 billion yuan, 13.153 billion yuan and 16.292 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit is expected to be 3.849 billion yuan, 5.199 billion yuan and 6.501 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 35.44, 26.24 and 20.99 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and the target price is 204.17 yuan. It is first covered and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: product sales are less than expected, product R & D is less than expected, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of centralized purchase of in vitro diagnostic reagents, the assumption of HPV vaccine market space calculation is not tenable, and the market development is less than expected, which leads to the deviation of market space calculation results and the risk of changes in the number of HPV vaccines.
