Looking back on Monday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a unilateral downward trend. The three major stock indexes opened low and went low in the morning, and then maintained a weak shock. The stock index fell further in the afternoon and accelerated the diving in the late afternoon. The Shanghai index refreshed its recent low and fell below 3000 points at one stroke. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index also showed a decline. There was no counterattack in the session, and the weak pattern was obvious all day.
As stated by Guosheng securities, the current market is still in the bottom grinding stage and the verification period of stable growth policy. The current market needs time to bottom. In such an environment with low profit-making effect, control hands, calm down, wait for further clarity of the policy, and then slowly regain confidence . It is suggested to pay attention to position control, pay attention to the infrastructure and real estate sectors related to the main line of stable growth, and the necessary consumption sector under the recovery of the post epidemic situation.
From a technical point of view, the agency further said that there was a gap between the Shanghai stock index and the gem index on Monday. The adjustment of the gem from the 3522 high has entered the fifth wave of decline. The gem refers to the third depletion gap in this band. Every adjustment in the history of a shares is another blow to market confidence . This week is also the 21st week since the adjustment. The market has accelerated its decline at this position, which is better than the dull knife Yin decline .
In terms of the future market, Aijian Securities pointed out that this area should not be too pessimistic, the management's care intention is obvious, and there is no doubt about the policy bottom, but there is great pressure on the release of sentiment in the short term, and the economic growth has not deteriorated beyond expectations. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the economic bottom, but the repair of the market still needs time . The current valuation level of the market is low, the safety margin is good, and the game characteristics of stock funds remain unchanged. It is still to grasp structural trading opportunities. The main opportunity lies in the valuation repair after excessive pessimistic expectations in the early stage.
In addition, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned that currently the market is in the stage of centralized release of risks. Whether the market can stop falling and stabilize and return to the upward trend in the future still needs strong support from the policy side and the continuous entry of OTC long funds . It is expected that the Shanghai stock index is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term, and the gem is more likely to fluctuate in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Dongguan Securities said that in the medium and long term, with the stable epidemic situation in China and the subsequent implementation of stable growth policies, the market will usher in the trend of gradual shock repair, and pay attention to the northward capital flow and changes in capacity . In operation, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, steel, household appliances, food and beverage, electrical equipment and other industries.
It is worth mentioning that Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) points out that cherishes the "cheap time" in the current bottom area , and A-Shares are expected to meet the counter offensive moment of "Normandy landing" and "infinite scenery in dangerous peaks".
first, in terms of economic fundamentals, the comparative advantage of China's economy will return . At present, China's fundamentals are hovering at the bottom and Europe and the United States are at the peak. If China's epidemic improves in the second half of the year, the supply chain recovers, and overseas crosses the recovery peak, China's economy will run upward, while overseas will run downward, and our comparative advantage is expected to return.
second, corporate profits are expected to gradually stabilize and recover . From the perspective of the past 20 years, the downward cycle of A-share earnings is 6-8 quarters. In the second and third quarters of this year or at the end of A-share performance, it will gradually improve in the fourth quarter.
Third, at the liquidity level, the market liquidity in the first half of the year was poor for two reasons: 1) the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and funds returned to the United States; 2) The market decline since the beginning of the year has put pressure on the issuance of public funds, and some absolute income products have also reduced their positions. In the case of less incremental funds, the market showed the trend of stock game in the whole first half of the year. Looking back, if the Fed does not make a more "Eagle" statement in the future, with the prominent comparative advantages of China's economy, overseas funds may return to emerging markets again, especially the Chinese market with significant medium and long-term allocation value .
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that fundamental factors point to the current market at the bottom of the medium-term range . In the medium term, fundamentals are the core factor driving stocks. There is no problem with the current economic fundamentals and corporate profit trend. The epidemic situation in China only affects the decline in performance growth in the first half of this year, but does not affect the profit trend and rhythm of the whole year.
The agency further analyzed that the bottom of A-share earnings this year may be in the second quarter. Fundamentals is a slow variable. It is impossible to judge whether the short-term market bottoms out from the perspective of fundamentals. In the short term, investor sentiment may disturb the market, but the current market sentiment is overly pessimistic. The market sentiment reflected by the current private placement position is as pessimistic as the stock disaster in 2015 and the bear market in 2018. In the third year of the epidemic, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 points again fundamental concern is the last factor impacting a shares. Although it is still affected by the repeated epidemic situation in China in the short term, the unchanged trend of fundamentals is an important reason why we are not pessimistic about the market in the medium term .
Macroscopically, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that at present, concerns about exports mainly come from three aspects : 1) overseas economies have stepped into the tide of interest rate hike and overseas demand has fallen; 2) The export substitution effect caused by the resumption of work and production in Southeast Asia; 3) China's supply chain disturbance. Through the observation of the current external demand and the analysis of the substitution effect of ASEAN exports, we believe that we need to rationally look at the current export situation without over amplifying our concerns. The "near worry" of China's export lies in the impact on the supply side. When China's supply chain is disturbed by local epidemic, the export may be under pressure in the short term.
From the perspective of the whole year, with the gradual appearance of the effectiveness of the stable foreign trade policy, China's supply chain is expected to be repaired as soon as possible. The recent loosening of the RMB exchange rate will also help to release the export potential, and China's export growth rate may still be maintained at a certain level after short-term pressure.
In terms of operation strategy, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that market is still in the bottom grinding stage. After panic selling, the market probability has been very close to the medium and long-term bottom position of A-Shares . At this stage, it is still recommended to focus on large cap value stocks with better defense ability and valuation repair space. At the same time, the recovery expectation after the epidemic is forming. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the recovery of supply chains all over the country.
On the whole, the value style is still dominant, and the growth sector needs to focus on the changes in fundamentals. In the short term, textiles, clothing and household appliances that benefit from the devaluation of the RMB have attracted market attention.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that currently focuses on three directions : 1) in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the steady growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate steady demand and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
