Recently, with the frequent adverse news such as the rise of new energy vehicle premiums, the decline of vehicle purchase subsidies and the rise of vehicle prices, the new energy vehicles that should have made persistent efforts have ushered in waves of doubts.
Among them, the most concerned question is whether new energy vehicles can continue to “sell out” in 2022?
On January 11, the Federation of passenger cars released the national passenger car market analysis report in December 2021. In the analysis report, the Federation of passengers said that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great positive.
subsidy has little impact on the decline?
It pointed out that according to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical index system will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will change from the original expected 2 million vehicles to no upper limit, which will realize the subsidy throughout the whole year of 2022.
In other words, although the subsidy intensity has been reduced after the new deal, the number of subsidies has been expanded accordingly, which will stimulate automobile enterprises to increase the output of new energy vehicles. Therefore, the Council said, “with the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction ability, the increment of new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 is very strong.”
While the output of upstream automobile enterprises increases, downstream consumers will also catch up with the “last bus” of policy subsidies.
However, the passenger Federation also pointed out that with the implementation of the decline of new energy subsidies, the price of some models will be fine tuned, and the consumer mentality will also change, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected.
In fact, in the past, due to the sharp decline of subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles had been greatly affected. Before last year, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars had been declining for three consecutive years.
On the other hand, new energy vehicles continued to be popular in 2021. At present, there are a large number of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales of most new energy vehicles will not be significantly affected by the decline.
At present, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market has also shifted from policy driven to market driven. In 2021, the annual sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, and the market share increased to 13.4%.
On this basis, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, believes that “with the expiration of the subsidy time, another round of rush purchase may be triggered at the end of 2022, so as to promote the sales of new energy vehicles to achieve a significant growth in 2022.”
sales forecast increased by
At the same time, the passenger Federation also raised the sales target of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022, from 4.8 million to more than 5.5 million, an increase of 14.58%, while the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is set at about 25%.
At the same time, it predicts that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, with a penetration rate of about 22%.
The Federation pointed out that with the improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the significant improvement of Chinese consumers’ recognition of the new energy market, the substitution trend of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles is becoming more and more obvious.
The data show that in 2021, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of 181%; Retail sales reached 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. In 2021, the wholesale of traditional fuel vehicles was 17.79 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and the retail of 17.16 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%.
In fact, it is only a matter of time before new energy vehicles completely replace fuel vehicles. With the promotion of global emission reduction and environmental protection and China’s “double carbon” strategy, fuel vehicles are also being “left behind” by various car enterprises.
Globally, many countries have issued “no burning orders”. In China, Hainan Province has clearly stipulated that the sales of fuel vehicles will be banned in the whole province from 2030, becoming the first city in China to clearly put forward “no combustion”.
Major automobile brands also responded one after another and put forward their own transformation plans. According to incomplete media statistics, up to now, 11 multinational auto enterprises have put forward clear “carbon reduction” goals or “carbon neutralization” schedules, 5 auto enterprises have clearly announced the specific time for stopping the sale or shutdown of fuel vehicles, and 7 auto enterprises have released the time and goal for fully realizing electrification.
Among them, Mercedes Benz has announced that it will change from “electric first” to “comprehensive electric” before 2030; Volkswagen also said that it will realize the electrification of the whole vehicle lineup by 2030 at the latest; GM announced that “by 2040, 100% of the models in GM’s product portfolio will be powered by electricity”.
