In the high-end market, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao 1573 and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) are in the same price band of 1000 yuan, but the market share and sales volume of the former are not dominant. Meanwhile, weak markets in East and South China still need to “make up for weaknesses”
A few days ago, Baisha enterprises raised the tide of price rise again. Among them, only a variety of products under Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (hereinafter referred to as Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , 000568. SZ) will be increased in December 2021.
On December 28, 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) cellar age liquor sales Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as cellar age sales company) issued a notice to increase the recommended group purchase price and retail price of 100 year cellar age liquor for 60 years (52 degrees, 43 degrees and 38 degrees), which are 468 yuan / bottle and 558 yuan / bottle (52 degrees), 448 yuan / bottle and 538 yuan / bottle (43 degrees), 428 yuan / bottle and 518 yuan / bottle (38 degrees) respectively.
Since the middle of the month, the prices of Guojiao 1573 (some areas) and Laojiao Tequ have been raised. In other words, within half a month, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has basically completed a new round of price adjustment for its medium and high-grade wines. In the meantime, the company also announced that it agreed that the wholly owned subsidiary Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Brewing Co., Ltd. would participate in bidding for the land use right in the Baijiu Industrial Park in Luzhou, Sichuan, for less than 573 million yuan, for production and construction projects. For a time, investors cheered for “capacity expansion”.
The industry has different views on this round of price adjustment of wine enterprises. Some securities companies believe that this will increase the company’s profits in the short term; Some people in the industry believe that there may be price inversion in price adjustment and promotion. As for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , what is the impact of this round of price increase on performance? Can it support the valuation level?
Referring to the company’s financial report, the researcher of investment Times noted that in the first three quarters of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company was better than Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , but there was still a large gap with the revenue scale of the two companies, and the revenue was still less than Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) 7.8 billion yuan. However, the gap with Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) profit has been shortened due to the decline of sales expense rate and the increase of gross profit margin.
In the high-end market, Guojiao 1573 and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) are in the same price band of 1000 yuan, but the market share and sales volume of the former are not dominant. At the same time, weak markets in East and South China still need to “make up for weaknesses”. On the whole, it is not easy for the company to return to the top three.
The two tier market, affected by the news of the consumption tax reform and so on, in December 29, 2021, Baijiu plate fell all over the world, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell by 6.83%. Since then, the stock has gradually declined, closing at 237.2 yuan / share as of January 10, 2022, down 6.6% year to date.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) stock price trend in recent year (yuan)
price increases frequently in December
Since December 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has adjusted prices many times.
First, on December 14, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Tequ sales company) issued a notice in the north and South regions. From now on, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ liquor (time-honored brand) 2018 version will implement the terminal price dual track system; In addition, the 2018 edition of 52 degree Tequ wine (time-honored brand) is for the terminal guidance price. It is suggested to increase the planned price by 40 yuan / 500ml, and it is suggested to increase the unplanned price to 368 yuan / 500ml (north area) and 388 yuan / 500ml (south area).
Subsequently, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Guojiao sales company) advised that the planned quota supply price of 38 ° and 52 ° Guojiao 1573 classic packaging terminal channels in central and South China should be increased by 40 yuan / bottle and 70 yuan / bottle, and the unplanned quota supply price should be increased to 750 yuan / bottle and 1080 yuan / bottle.
According to the data, in 2020, the company will combine medium-grade wine and high-grade wine in the financial report. With 150 yuan as the boundary, Guojiao 1573, Laojiao Tequ and Jiaoling wine are collectively referred to as medium and high-grade wine; The first and second tunes below 150 yuan are listed as other wines. In other words, in addition to the 60-year price adjustment of cellar age wine on the 28th of that month, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has basically completed a new round of price increase.
According to incomplete statistics, since November 2021, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596. SZ), Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702. SH), Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) (600059. SH), Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (00860. SZ) and other liquor enterprises have followed up, and the 52 degree ordinary Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) plans to go out of the factory price to 1089 yuan / bottle.
There are different views in the industry on the price increase of wine enterprises. Many securities companies believe that this move can thicken the company’s profits in the short term and enhance the brand power in the medium and long term. However, some people in the industry believe that the price increase is mostly for promotion, urging dealers to make money, and there is a certain “moisture” in the price increase of many wine enterprises. It is unknown whether the price increase can stimulate dynamic sales.
back to the top three?
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) achieved a revenue of 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.32%. Among them, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter were 4.793 billion yuan and 2.049 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of “double digits”.
According to the analysis of several securities companies, the growth of the company’s performance is mainly due to the growth of sales revenue of medium and high-grade liquor. At present, Guojiao 1573 has firmly stood in the top three position of high-end. In addition, the increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in sales expense ratio contributed a lot to the increase in profits.
Compared with the “maowu” in the same period, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) although the performance growth rate is good, the revenue scale is still far from the first two. At the same time, it is clear that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) who wants to return to the top three will also catch up with Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) . According to the data, in the first three quarters of 2021, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 21.942 billion yuan and 7.213 billion yuan, about 7.8 billion yuan and 900 million yuan higher than Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
Even for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) in the same period, the income is about 3.1 billion yuan higher than that of the company, which is 17.257 billion yuan. Compared with Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) profit is not far away, which is related to the improvement of profit indicators.
From 2016 to 2020, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) sales expense rates were 18.54%, 23.20%, 25.99%, 26.47% and 18.56%. Up to the first three quarters of 2021, the index fell to 13.72%, but it was still Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) 3.68 percentage points higher, while the “Mao five” in the same period were 2.50% and 10.86% respectively; In terms of gross profit margin, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) this index has been raised to 86.30%, which is relatively ahead.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) the high gross profit margin is mainly due to the company’s continuous increase in the proportion of medium and high-grade wine sales. From 2019 to the first half of 2021, the revenue of the company’s medium and high-grade liquor accounted for 78.05%, 85.49% and 88.21%; The corresponding gross profit margin is 80.62%, 83.05% and 85.67%, second only to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in “Mao Wuyang”.
In the high-end market, the current pattern is determined. The terminal price of Maotai is stable at more than 2500 yuan, and Guojiao 1573 competes with Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the price band of 1000 yuan. However, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) still needs to make efforts in brand rejuvenation and regional market performance to improve the market share and sales volume of Guojiao 1573. It is not easy for the company to “return to the top three”.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) sales expense rate in recent years (%)
Data source: wind
the largest customer accounts for nearly half of the sales
In addition, the company’s channel model also deserves attention. According to public data, in 2015, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) changed Qiquan mode to brand franchise mode, and established three brand franchise companies, Guojiao, Tequ and Jiaoling, which are held by dealers and responsible for the sales of Guojiao and Tequ respectively.
According to tianyancha information, the above Guojiao sales company, Tequ sales company and Jiaoling sales company were established in January 2015, January 2014 and March 2016 respectively; Most of the shareholders are individuals and their holdings are scattered.
As of 31, 2021, the shareholding ratios of Huang Xingyao, Jiang Yuezhong and Chen Shiqin were 10.65%, 6.09% and 4.87% respectively, ranking among the top three of Guojiao sales company. Zhoukou Huafu Liquor Co., Ltd., Liu Fengmei and Lanzhou jiantuo liquor operation Co., Ltd. hold about 9.52%, 9.10% and 7.03%, ranking among the top three of Tequ sales company. The largest shareholding ratio of Jiaoling sales company is Yangzhou Chenglian Trading Co., Ltd., Wu Yifu and Xingtai henggu Trading Co., Ltd., which are 18.18%, 10.91% and 7.88% respectively.
According to the financial report, in 2019, 2020 and the first half of 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) the sales amount of the top five customers was 10.447 billion yuan, 12.453 billion yuan and 6.303 billion yuan, accounting for 66.05%, 74.78% and 67.65% of the total sales amount. Among them, the sales volume and proportion of the largest customer were 7.230 billion yuan and 45.71%, 9.633 billion yuan and 57.85%, 4.747 billion yuan and 50.95%.
In addition, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has uneven development in various regions of the country. The advantageous markets are concentrated in the southwest and central China, and the markets in East and South China rank lower. The channel construction and market share of the two regions are weak. The “east to South map” strategy implemented by the company since 2018 still needs to be deepened.
