Base metals: affected by concerns about the economic outlook outside China, the global bulk commodities led by oil weakened as a whole this week, while the base metals were weak and stable. In LME3, copper fell 2.5%, aluminum fell 1.7%, SHFE main contract copper rose 0.1% and aluminum rose 0.3%. This week, the global dominant inventory of copper rose by 2.26% month on month, down 41.55% year on year, and that of aluminum fell by 3.43% month on month, down 42.93% year on year, still at the lowest level in history; Mainly subject to the price rise of thermal coal, the cost of electrolytic aluminum smelting was measured synchronously this week, and the pre tax profit per ton of aluminum fell by 171 yuan to 1934 yuan month on month (Shandong region). Although based on the long-term characteristics and equity dimension, the base metal sector experienced a major correction this week mainly due to concerns about China’s demand, in the commodity dimension, copper, aluminum and other base metals remained relatively stable on the whole, and the fundamentals did not deteriorate significantly. This week, the dominant inventory of most base metals represented by aluminum returned to the de melting channel. At present, copper, aluminum and other basic metals are faced with the situation that the supply is disturbed from time to time to hedge against the relative weakness of domestic demand. It is expected that the short-term price will remain high and volatile. Once China’s economy reaches the bottom, it is expected to start a smoother upward cycle, especially for copper and aluminum with obvious optimization of supply and demand structure and more easily inverted bottom in the traditional real estate field. At the level of equity, it’s suggested to focus on the level of equity. It’s suggested to focus on the level of equity. It is suggested to focus on the aluminum ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , etc. can also be concerned in the medium and long term.
Energy metals: with the adjustment of the rights and interests of the new energy sector and the obvious deviation from the strength of the fundamentals, the cost performance of the sector allocation has gradually improved.
In terms of lithium, with the release of new capacity and the seasonal repair of Salt Lake production, the price of lithium fluctuated in the range of 45 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 0000 / ton. At present, the lithium salt inventory of lithium salt plants / traders / midstream is generally very low, so the subsequent lithium price is expected to return to the upward trend driven by the continuous growth of demand. At present, due to the relatively slow development speed of overseas resources, the proportion of lithium demand in this round of industry has increased significantly, and the superimposed cost curve is steep and full of toughness, which has greatly raised the central level of lithium price. Pay attention to the concentrate auction at the end of April in Pilbara. In terms of cobalt, on April 12, due to floods in KwaZulu Natal province in eastern South Africa due to days of heavy rainfall, Durban port announced an emergency suspension of business, and 70% of the cobalt logistics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo passed through Durban port. At present, the logistics of Durban port is gradually recovering, but the disaster caused by this extreme weather is expected to lead to the interruption of inland transportation, the delay of shipping schedule, or the impact on the raw materials of cobalt intermediates arriving in the port from June. The supply will continue to be tight, and the cobalt price will be more than 500000 / ton under the condition of short-term high cost and low inventory. In terms of nickel, the Russian Ukrainian war superimposed the air pressure behavior, and the nickel price center increased significantly. Later, with the gradual release of new supply, the price is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. The nickel price center is expected to greatly exceed the previous expectation of US $18000 in 2022. This week, the first electric furnace of Huayou Indonesia Huake high nickel matte project was successfully ignited, and the 30000 ton high nickel power battery nickel sulfate project of Huayou Quzhou base was put into trial production. In terms of rare earths, China’s rare earth quota increased by 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2022, further extending the tight pattern of rare earth supply and demand. Recently, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has stabilized and rebounded China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) benefited from the 40% year-on-year increase of quota, and the profit elasticity of both volume and price is expected to be fully reflected. At the same time, China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) set up the magnetic material business department, which will integrate the existing magnetic material industry and promote the integrated development of magnetic material business. We are optimistic about the performance elasticity of the magnetic material sector under the resonance of multiple factors such as the capacity expansion and product structure improvement of the head company. Suggestions and concerns: lithium ( ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) ).
Precious metals: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time, and the US bond interest rate accelerated to a new high, but the oil price remained high and tenacious, and gold remained strong as a whole in the stagflation environment. At the current node, we still view gold from the perspective of configuration on the left, which is different from other commodities. After one and a half years of consolidation, gold stocks are still in the area of undervalued value and high configuration price. Looking to the future, both the short-term stagflation scenario and the medium-term recession scenario are conducive to the strengthening of gold price. Gold stocks are currently located in the left allocation area, and pay attention to their allocation value, which is not limited to the current anti stagflation trading. It is suggested to pay attention to the gold mining industry, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk tips
1. The progress of global economic recovery is less than expected, and the global demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected; 2. The rapid release of metal supply has led to a decline in prices.
