[early trading strategy]
Technically, after falling down for two days, the market opened low and rebounded last Friday, and the Shanghai index gained some support near the former low area. Although the gem index has not shown obvious signs of stopping falling, the decline speed has also slowed down. Unfortunately, the market volume has not been significantly enlarged, and it is expected that the two indexes will still undergo shock consolidation. Overall, the market is still showing a weak trend. It is not ruled out that there may be an oversold rebound at any time, but we should still pay attention to the short-term, and the middle line should continue to wait patiently.
On the whole, A-Shares were still in a weak state last week. On the one hand, the performance of Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) one of the leading hot track stocks in the early stage did not meet expectations, which led to a sharp decline in hot track stocks. On the other hand, due to the increased impact of short-term RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the market, market confidence was impacted to a certain extent. However, it is worth noting that recently, the management has made frequent statements, and their attention to the current economy and capital market has gradually increased, and market confidence is expected to be gradually boosted. This week is the last trading week before the May Day holiday. Many underperforming stocks will publish the annual report of 2021. At the same time, all listed companies will publish the first quarterly report this week. In view of the impact of covid-19 epidemic in the first quarter, it is suggested that investors should be properly vigilant against the risk of performance storm of listed companies. However, after the continuous deep decline of a shares, the current position should not be too panic. It is suggested to wait patiently for the market to turn around, and shock consolidation may still be the main tone of the recent market. At the operational level, it is suggested to focus on the following main lines: first, the main line of steady growth, which is still the most deterministic investment line in the market. We can pay attention to the new and old infrastructure, real estate industry chain, building materials and other sectors that are expected to benefit. In particular, it is worth noting that the upcoming meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April is an important observation time window, and it is suggested to focus on the tone of relevant policies; 2、 The main line of inflation. The layout of the upstream and downstream metal prices, which are supported by the global inflation, can be maintained at a high level in the first quarter of this year; 3、 Dilemma reverses the main line. Sectors that are expected to gradually improve in troubled industries can focus on allocation opportunities formed after oversold, such as aquaculture; 4、 Growth main line. In the context of the great differentiation of track stocks, we can deeply tap the real growth stocks, such as high boom segments catalyzed by strong industrial cycles such as photovoltaic, medical services and green power. Focus on tracking and paying attention to whether the US bond yield can usher in an inflection point. At that time, the growth sector is expected to usher in the opportunity of oversold rebound.
[message side]
1. Inflation in Europe and the United States is peaking. China should be vigilant against fluctuations in overseas supply of bulk commodities
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China Center for international economic exchanges, said that the possibility of a recession in the United States is unlikely for the time being, and the emerging market countries in Europe are facing a test. The future trend of global inflation is affected by the evolution of the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine and the degree of implementation of sanctions against Russia by the United States and Europe. At the same time, we should pay attention to the impact of tightening monetary policy by the United States. China should be alert to the impact of fluctuations in overseas supply of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (6.420, - 0.71, - 9.96%) resources such as soybeans, oil and gas, metal minerals and so on.
2. Wang Yiming: take strong measures to promote the economic growth rate to return to 5% in the second quarter
On April 24, the 2022 asset management summit of China wealth management 50 forum was held in Beijing. Wang Yiming, member of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China and former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said that stronger policy measures must be taken to ensure that economic growth returns to more than 5% in the second quarter. In addition, more direct subsidies can be provided to low-income groups to expand consumption.
3. The GDP of 23 provinces achieved positive growth of more than 80% in the first quarter, and the growth rate was higher than the national level
Recently, data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that China's GDP reached 27 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. According to the reporter, as of April 24, 23 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) have successively released the "first quarterly report" and achieved positive growth. Among them, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of 19 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) is higher than the national level.
4. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has been adjusted for three consecutive days to 6.4596, and the depreciation pressure may continue in the short term
Recently, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has continued to decline. On April 22, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was significantly reduced by 498 basis points to 6.4596, the lowest since October 14, 2021. This is also the third consecutive day of adjustment of the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar. Looking forward to the later stage, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) (14.260, 0.01, 0.07%) research report believes that the pressure of RMB devaluation may last for some time.
