On January 12, the UHV plate lifted the limit tide. As of the closing, Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) , Dalian electromagnetic word limit, Changshu Fengfan Power Equipment Co.Ltd(601700) limit, China Xd Electric Co.Ltd(601179) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) etc. rose sharply.
According to China Energy News, the National Grid plans to build UHV "24 AC and 14 DC" in the 14th five year plan, involving more than 30000 kilometers of lines, 340 million KVA of transformation capacity and a total investment of 380 billion yuan. In 2022, the State Grid plans to start 13 UHV lines of "10 AC and 3 DC".
According to the calculation of Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) new power team, according to the number of lines and converter capacity in the report, it is estimated that there are 28 converter stations for DC lines, the converter capacity of each station is 800 KVA, and the market scale of converter valve and converter transformer is 22.4 billion yuan and 39.2 billion yuan respectively; The AC line is expected to have 19 substations, each with a substation capacity of 6 million KVA, and the market scale of GIS and transformer is 15.2 billion yuan and 5.3 billion yuan respectively
speed up of UHV DC project construction
According to the statistics of China Securities Journal, the maximum number of UHV projects started in a single year from 2006 to 2020 is 7 (2020), and the minimum number is 0 (2017, etc.). If the State Grid starts 13 UHV lines in 2022, it will exceed the historical maximum and far exceed the market expectation.
14 UHV lines have been started in the 12th Five Year Plan and 18 in the 13th five year plan. If 38 UHV lines are built in the 14th five year plan, it will be far ahead of the two five-year plans.
Public information shows that UHV DC lines are mainly used for clean energy transmission. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid plans to build 14 DC UHV lines, including lines that have been launched and lines to be launched.
At present, 7 lines have been launched, including those launched in 2018 and 2020, that is, the "planned 7-circuit UHV DC lines to be built during the 14th five year plan" mentioned in the previous action plan of "carbon neutralization and carbon peak".
The State Grid said that during the "14th five year plan" period, the new cross regional transmission channels of the State Grid mainly focus on the transmission of clean energy. The "14th five year plan" plans to build seven UHV DC lines, with a new transmission capacity of 56 million KW. By 2025, the trans provincial and trans regional transmission capacity of the company's business area will reach 300 million KW, and the transmission of clean energy will account for 50%.
Launched refers to the planned line that has been "officially announced" by the state grid so far, and to be launched refers to the new line to be launched in the future. Industry insiders believe that with the continuous promotion of the construction of new energy base, the existing UHV DC lines are gradually bundled. It is expected that UHV DC lines will be built around the base during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
According to the data, UHV AC lines are mainly used for the construction of regional ring network, which is of great significance for building a safe and stable power grid and strengthening inter provincial mutual assistance. During the "14th five year plan" period, the number of lines increased significantly
organization: UHV is the key investment direction of power grid
Insiders pointed out that UHV core equipment has high technical content and good competition pattern, which deserves special attention.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) according to the Securities Research Report, the State Grid UHV plans to invest 230 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan, with a growth rate of 35.7%, far exceeding the industry expectation. As an important part of the new infrastructure, UHV speed-up construction will drive the large-scale construction of power grid supporting projects, boost power equipment and upstream and downstream industries, and drive economic growth.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the construction of UHV is conducive to the transmission of clean energy. In recent years, with the promotion of UHV construction, the utilization rate of new energy in the operation area of State Grid has increased from 84.6% in 2015 to 97.1% in 2020. Based on the planning of UHV projects in the double carbon action plan of the State Grid, UHV is still the key investment direction of the power grid.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) securities research report suggests paying attention to the field of DC arrester and line insulator suppliers.
