The current liquidity hot spot tracking focuses on two recent concerns of investors: 1) whether the existing public offering products when the stock index stabilized in the past week are facing a large-scale redemption tide; 2) The impact of the centralized expiration of bank / financial sub financial products on the stock market this year. Our core conclusions: 1) the application and redemption of existing public offering products (equity / fixed income + / pure debt) remained stable this week; 2) The scale of equity assets held by fixed income + / equity financial products due in the next two years has little impact on market liquidity.
The investigation of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channels shows that the application and redemption status of various surviving public offering products has remained stable in the past week.
In the past three weeks (March 9-23), the weekly net redemption rate of existing active equity public offering products investigated in Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channels was about 2 ~ 7 ‰, far lower than the highest 4% since 2021, and the net redemption rate observed in the latest week was lower than that in the previous week, indicating that the recent stabilization and rebound of the market did not lead to a return of redemption at the retail end. We further classified and counted the application and redemption of flexible allocation / partial stock mixed / common stock products in the channel according to the detailed items. The above conclusion is still valid. Among them, the common stock products in the channel even had the phenomenon of net subscription on individual trading days in the past week. We also make statistics on the application and redemption of “fixed income +” products and medium and long-term pure debt fund products represented by mixed bond secondary funds in the channel. The “fixed income +” products were in the state of net subscription in the first week of March, and the second turnover was a small net redemption, but the net redemption scale in the second week was much lower than that in the first week. The daily data of the latest week showed that it was changed from net redemption to small net subscription again. The medium – and long-term pure bond funds we tracked welcomed net subscription in February, with a small net redemption in the first two weeks of March and a large net subscription in the latest week. Of course, considering the small scale of pure bond products continued in Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channels, this situation may not be representative.
The scale of equity assets held by fixed income + / equity financial products due in the next two years has little impact on market liquidity.
1) from 2022 to 2023, the existing financial products of banks / financial subsidiaries will usher in the peak of maturity, but the maturity of pure debt / bond fof products is the main (accounting for 83%), and the fixed income + / equity products of configurable equity assets are relatively small (accounting for only 17%). According to wind data, taking March 23, 2022 as the benchmark, if considering the maturity in the next five years and excluding the financial products invested only in interest rates, exchange rates, commodities and bills, the number of existing bank financial products is 15289. According to the simple classification of investment direction, there are 2979 fixed income + / equity financial products and 12310 bond or bond fof financial products.
The above products will be relatively concentrated and expire within the next two years. The number of products due from March 2022 to December 2023 is 13632, accounting for 89.1% of the total number of samples, including 2356 fixed income + / equity products, accounting for 79% of the total number of samples of the same type, and 11276 bonds or bond fof products, accounting for 91% of the total number of samples of the same type. Overall, from 2022 to 2023, the maturity of financial products is mainly bonds or bond fof products (accounting for about 83%).
2) in the peak period of maturity, the average scale of equity assets held by monthly maturing financial products under static calculation is about 16.6 billion yuan. If distributed evenly, it roughly corresponds to the net reduction of about 800 million per trading day, so it has little impact on the capital of the stock market. In order to measure the limit of the impact of product maturity on the liquidity of the stock market, taking the upper limit of the “planned raising amount” product published in the sample as the reference standard, we get that the average value of the upper limit of the scale of bond or bond fof financial products is 3.2 billion yuan, and the average value of the upper limit of the scale of fixed income + / equity financial products is 3.8 billion yuan. Further, we compare the net value of bank financial products with the net value changes of public offering fof / public offering fixed income + products, and roughly estimate the equity asset positions held by bank financial products. According to the data of bank wealth management products with net value published by wind statistics, the average income of fixed income + / equity type bank wealth management in the past one month / three months is – 0.2% / + 0.1%, which is much higher than the average yield of fof type public fund of – 3.9% / – 6.8% in the past one month / three months, and also higher than the average yield of fixed income + type public fund of – 2.3% / – 4.3% in the past one month / three months, This means that the position of equity related assets allocated by bank financial products is not high. We know that the position of stocks and fund assets held by fof public offering in 4q21 is about 90%, so the net value change of bank financial management in recent one month should correspond to the position level of equity assets of 4-6% compared with fof public offering; Similarly, if compared with various fixed income + public offering products (the average position of 4q21 is about 31%), the financial products correspond to the position level of equity assets of about 2-4%. Based on the above situation, we assume that the equity position of fixed income + / equity type financial products is about 4%, so the average maturity selling price of RMB 16.6 billion from April 2022 to December 2023 corresponds to. Since the financial products will not expire on a certain day in a certain month, the daily selling price is only about RMB 800 million for 20 trading days per month; Even at the peak of maturity in December, it is estimated that the corresponding daily average selling price is only about 1.4 billion yuan.
Summary of recent conventional capital flow:
1) in March, the public offering of new products and new products kept a cold market as scheduled. As of March 23, active equity / passive equity products were established in March with 17.2 billion yuan / 4.2 billion yuan respectively, and the scale of new products with a total of 21.5 billion yuan was much higher than that of 13.7 billion yuan in February. However, there was a spring festival holiday in February, and the average establishment scale of active new products in March was 400 million yuan, which was almost the same as that of 390 million yuan in February, indicating that the increase in the total issuance in March only came from the increase in quantity, not the increase in the average scale, The current scale is far lower than the average level of 1 billion yuan / animal in the fourth quarter of last year.
2) foreign capital transaction activity dropped significantly this week. The transaction activity of northbound funds fell rapidly in the first three trading days of this week. According to the statistics of the top ten traded stocks of northbound funds, the proportion of the transaction volume of northbound funds in the daily transaction volume of corresponding stocks fell from 27.2% on Friday to 13.5% on Wednesday, of which the proportion of foreign sales fell from 13.0% on Friday to 6.7% on Wednesday.
3) the net inflow of allocated foreign capital is restored, and the trading foreign capital continues to fluctuate from time to time. The net inflow of allocated funds has been maintained for five consecutive trading days from March 17 to 23, with the cumulative net inflow reaching 16.4 billion yuan; However, the net outflow of allocated foreign capital in this round has not yet returned completely. As of March 23, there is still a “gap” of 19.9 billion yuan in the withdrawal scale of allocated funds from A-Shares since March 7. Recently, the stocks of configuration oriented foreign capital return are concentrated in household appliances, medicine, banking, catering and other industries.
Risk factors: 1) the sharp fluctuation of overseas equity market leads to the withdrawal of foreign capital from risk avoidance exceeding expectations; 2) The issuance of public funds turned cold due to the impact of market shocks; 3) The redemption of public funds exceeded expectations.
