The RMB exchange rate, A-Shares and China commodity futures fell together today, and A-Shares and funds boarded the hot search again.
On April 25, the volume and price of A-share market fell together, and the Shanghai stock index fell by 5.13%, falling behind 3000 points. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 292851; The Shenzhen composite index fell 6.08%; The gem index fell 5.56%. From the distribution of individual stocks, there are only more than 100 rising stocks, more than 4500 falling stocks and more than 600 falling stocks. Considering that the growth enterprise market, science and innovation board and Beijing stock exchange rose or fell by 20%, in fact, more than 1000 stocks fell by the limit or by more than 10%. In terms of capital, the turnover of Shanghai stock market was 427077 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen stock market was 469817 billion yuan. The total turnover of the two markets was 896894 billion yuan, which was significantly larger than that of 753268 billion yuan on the previous trading day.
Not only did A-shares fall sharply, but also the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate. On April 25, the onshore RMB fell below the 6.55 mark against the US dollar, once falling more than 600 basis points within the day, and the offshore RMB fell below the 6.59 mark, falling more than 600 points within the dayp align=”center” style=”text-align:center;”> (RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate)
In addition, China’s commodity futures also showed a general decline. Zheng alcohol’s main contracts fell by the limit, with iron ore falling by more than 7%, soda ash, Shanghai tin and ferrosilicon falling by more than 6%, pulp and eg falling by more than 5%, manganese silicon and SS falling by more than 4%, hot coil and Lu falling by more than 3%, cotton yarn and coke falling by more than 2%, fuel oil and vegetable meal falling by more than 1%, Zheng cotton and peanut falling slightly.
cause analysis: the expectation of interest rate reduction fails, the credit easing is less than expected, the epidemic situation in various places rises, the US interest rate increases and shrinks, the depreciation of RMB…
For the reason why A-Shares fell today, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) Shandong Branch Lei Xingliang said that it was caused by the superposition of multiple factors. For example, the expectation of interest rate reduction in the early stage failed, the credit easing was less than expected, the downward pressure on the economy caused by the rise of the epidemic in various places, the overseas interest rate increase and contraction, and the outflow of foreign capital caused by the devaluation of the RMB. At the same time, a large number of snowball structured products have been knocked out at the capital level, some private placement products have been forced to close their positions, as well as intraday trampling, which are important factors causing the sharp decline of a shares.
Lei Xingliang told reporters that before the two sessions after the Spring Festival this year, the market expected the intensive introduction of positive fiscal policy and friendly monetary policy for a period of time, but later there was no news. Therefore, the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment, and there was a wave of significant adjustment in the market. Now this mood appears again. In this case, it is very important for fiscal policy to make efforts, especially the policies on the main line of steady growth and promotion fees.
examine positions, reduce trading frequency, avoid high valuation sectors, and don’t be pessimistic
But at the same time, there are also positive signals in the market. On April 25, the national development and Reform Commission made an emergency move and issued a document saying that it is necessary to actively expand effective investment, including adhering to the accurate and effective investment orientation and focusing on promoting the construction of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan, so as to promote the steady and healthy development of the economy. As such policies become more and more specific, the market will have more and more information about the macro-economy.
In addition to the policy aspect, it is not difficult to see from the historical data that most of the major indexes are at the bottom of the valuation since January 1, 2015, especially the valuation of CSI 500 has reached a record low, while most of the other major indexes are close to the bottom valuation level that fell during the trade dispute in 2018p align=”center” style=”text-align:center;”> (at present, the major indexes in the market have been at the bottom of the valuation since 2015)
From the perspective of capital, as of the end of March, the average stock position of private equity funds was 58.93%, down 10.18 percentage points from the end of February. Small and medium-sized private equity positions continued to decline rapidly by about 4 percentage points to around 65% in April, which has been at the lowest level since the beginning of 2019. There is also little difference from the average position level of about 53% of private placement in 2018. As of the closing on April 22, the dynamic P / E ratio of the top 100 heavyweight stocks of position weighted public funds has been adjusted to 26.1 times, and the dynamic P / E ratio of the top 100 heavyweight stocks of northbound funds has also been adjusted back to 23.7 times, both of which are at a low level since 2010. Based on this, Lei Xingliang believes that it is meaningless to continue to be pessimistic.
In addition, from the historical data, in recent years, it is rare for the Shanghai stock index to fall by more than 3%, and only a few to fall by more than 5%. Data show that the Shanghai index has a high probability of rebound after a sharp decline. According to the statistics, the probability of the market’s performance exceeding the red index by 5% in the second year since 2018 is also large.
Lei Xingliang said that at this time, investors should examine their positions, reduce transaction frequency, avoid high valuation sectors, and lay out the main lines of stable growth and promotion fees with reasonable valuation in the middle line, such as home appliances, home appliances, blue chips of central enterprises, new and old infrastructure, etc.
