After new year's day, the price of lithium carbonate continued to jump. According to the data of business agency, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate on January 11 has been 355000 yuan / ton.
Behind the jump in lithium price is the tightening of supply and demand before the festival, but there is little response from concept stocks on the disk. A private placement person told the financial associated press that the market has expected the price jump, and the future market will pay attention to whether the production and sales of new energy vehicles can continue in large quantities under the high level of lithium salt.
lithium price rises and the disk surface is cold
Recently, the quotation of lithium carbonate has continued to rise. According to the data of business society, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate has increased from 266000 yuan / ton to 295600 yuan / ton from January 1 to January 10, and the unit price has increased by 11.13%. Last week, the price of lc2206 in Changzhou Zoomlion battery grade lithium carbonate contract has risen to 400000 yuan / ton.
Behind the price rise, supply and demand are tightening. Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) according to the research report, the output of lithium carbonate in the first week of the year was 3633 tons, falling for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the maintenance of smelters in mainstream Sichuan and Jiangxi, and the holding of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games had a slight impact on Hebei, Shandong and other places.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) the researcher of new metal materials told the financial associated press that the preparation before the festival is the main demand at present. "The Spring Festival is approaching, and the epidemic factors are superimposed. The downstream enterprises should prepare at least half a month's goods. It is expected that the demand before the year is still good".
The analysis of the business community also points out similar views. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of major mainstream manufacturers and the natural gas restriction in Qinghai, the current supply is still in a position. At the same time, near the Spring Festival, China's mainstream Sanyuan and iron lithium manufacturers are still preparing raw materials, the procurement rhythm is not reduced, and some seriously out of stock enterprises still accept the high lithium carbonate quotation.
Meanwhile, lithium hydroxide is also rising. According to the data of business agency, from January 1 to January 10, the industrial grade lithium hydroxide increased from 216700 yuan / ton to 265000 yuan / ton, an increase of 22.29%
However, the higher lithium price did not bring the follow-up of the secondary market. From New Year's day to the closing on January 11, China stock market news salt lake lithium extraction index (861378. EI) fell 8.81%, while Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) (600388. SH), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ) fell 11.05%, 10.99% and 11.22% respectively. On the disk, most of the related concept companies are opening high and going low or sideways in the near future.
A private placement person told the financial associated press that lithium related stocks had a large increase in the early stage and had overdrawn some expectations for the rise of lithium carbonate prices. Turning to future expectations, the person said that he would pay attention to whether the production and sales of new energy vehicles could continue in large quantities under the high price of lithium carbonate.
Will the price increase bite back the demand?
Under the rise of raw materials in 2021, the gross profit of existing battery factories has been squeezed. Compared with the 2020 annual report, in the third quarter of 2021, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) (002074. SZ), Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) (688567. SH), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014. SZ), the sales gross profit margin of the three companies decreased by 6.92%, 15.38% and 5.31% respectively.
At present, the price is further transmitted to the downstream, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) said in the investor survey minutes that it has negotiated with customers for price adjustment. Since December, Tesla and Xiaopeng have raised vehicle prices successively. At the same time, some market participants began to worry about whether the rise of raw materials will reverse the terminal demand.
A consumer who intends to buy a car told the financial associated press that the rising premium of new energy vehicles has increased the cost of maintaining a car. If the price of the intended model increases, it will further affect the willingness to buy a car.
Looking forward to 2022, the passenger Federation holds good expectations. According to the national passenger vehicle market analysis in December 2021 released on January 11, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles were originally expected to be 4.8 million in 2022, which should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million at present, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles should reach about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
According to the latest research report of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) , the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has maintained rapid growth. With the gradual improvement of supply side models and the improvement of competitiveness, new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a high outlook. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will exceed 5 million in 2022.
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