In the second quarter, with the adjustment of market shock, the net value of some private placement products has been on the "red light". According to paipai.com, as of April 20, there were more than 1000 stock strategy private placement products with a net value of less than 0.85 yuan.
Today, the three major A-share indexes opened low. In the afternoon, the index continued to weaken. The Shanghai index and gem index fell by more than 5% and the Shenzhen composite index fell by more than 6%. The weak market is expected to make the net value of some private placement products whose net value is not ideal further approach the early warning line and stop loss line, which has also attracted market attention.
According to a number of insiders interviewed by the financial Associated Press, the sharp decline on Monday was mainly due to external factors affecting market confidence. The rise of hawks of the Federal Reserve last week led to the sharp decline of US stocks on Friday night, which was transmitted to today's Asian market, and the whole peripheral stock market fell sharply. The multi-point spread of the epidemic in China has also raised concerns about economic growth. But the rapid release of this negative sentiment will help to find the bottom in the short term.
Based on the above logic, objectively speaking, although the setting of early warning line and stop loss line can control the maximum loss of investors within a certain range. However, in the process of market adjustment, the setting of "double line" will also make fund managers reduce their positions passively under the background of ignoring the market, thus aggravating market fluctuations. Further, after passive position reduction, private equity fund managers may also lose the market in the future rebound, affecting the repair of net worth.
Therefore, some private placement insiders stressed that, at least for now, the passive meat cutting caused by the early warning line and stop loss line is not necessary at the current stage. Lowering the early warning line and stop loss line will reduce the impact on the market in the short term.
private placement passive position reduction attracted attention
Today, the market opened low all day, and the three major indexes fell by more than 5%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed below 3000 points, a new low since mid June 2020.
On the disk, almost all sectors fell across the board, and the cyclical and digital economy related sectors collectively fell sharply. In addition, several heavyweights fell sharply, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc. all fell by more than 5%. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less. There were less than 200 popular stocks in the two cities. Nearly 1000 stocks fell by the limit or more than 10%, and more than 1800 stocks fell by more than 9%.
Xingshi investment said that today's sharp decline in the stock market was mainly affected by the following factors, and overseas factors may have a greater impact:
(1) the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve intensified, depressing the risk appetite of global investors. From April 19 to April 22, Fed officials frequently made hawkish statements. Many voting committees expressed support for the 50bp interest rate hike in May. Brad, the "strongest Hawk", said that "the possibility of a single 75bp interest rate hike cannot be ruled out". The three major indexes of US stocks all closed down, and the Dow hit the largest one-day decline since the end of October 2020. In addition, the intensification of the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve has also brought about the sharp outflow of funds from the North today and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which has also suppressed the risk appetite of China's stock market.
(2) over the weekend, new changes occurred in the epidemic situation in China, and the market is gradually worried that the epidemic situation in large cities will have a great impact on the economy.
(3) some Baima enterprises delayed the announcement of financial reports or major changes in personnel, which further affected the market risk appetite.
In the depressed mood and weak market, private placement, which has always had a "sense of smell", and its current every move also particularly affect the market's attention.
However, at least from the data point of view, the life of many private placement is obviously not easy. According to the data of private placement network, as of April 20, there were 1465 private placement products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.85 yuan, including 1192 stock strategy products; There are 544 private placement products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.7 yuan, including 460 stock strategy products.
Against the above background, several private placement companies have been reported that their products have fallen below the warning line. For example, some products of 10 billion quantitative private equity Lingjun investment fell below the warning line.
According to an insider, "At present, when private placement managers issue products through channels, they mostly agree on the early warning line of 0.85 yuan or 0.8 yuan and the stop loss line of 0.7 yuan in the fund contract. When the unit net value of products is lower than the early warning line, they need to reduce their positions, usually to 50%. Some private placement also set up a risk control system for the early warning line, that is, when the net value of products is about to fall below the early warning line, they will reduce their positions in advance. In the adjustment of market shocks since this year, many private placement managers have Due to the provisions of the "double line" setting, the raising has actively or passively reduced its position. "
Private placement ranking network data also showed that as of April 8, the stock private placement position index was 74.25%, down 1.16% from last week, ending the previous three consecutive weeks of rising trend and hitting a new low for the year, far lower than the average level of 75.32% of the stock private placement position index this year.
This data may also reflect the fact that some private placement are forced to reduce their positions from one side.
many private placement companies actively reduced their positions in advance, and there are few passive products
Obviously, the Shanghai stock index fell below the 3000 point mark on Monday, making the net value of some private placement products with unsatisfactory net value further close to the early warning line and stop loss line.
However, according to the financial Associated Press reporter learned from a number of private placement, since most private placement had taken the initiative to reduce their positions in the market shock, these private placement products did not touch the early warning line today. However, some private placement said that some products have been passively reduced recently.
Just after today's trading, Hongshang assets held an online roadshow of the investment exchange meeting in the second quarter of 2022. On the operation of new products established during the year, Zhang Jun, CO CEO of Hongshang assets, said that in just three months after its establishment, the net value of the product has retreated by nearly 1 / 4, which has far exceeded his expectations. However, up to now, the stock position of the product is still about 80%.
"In fact, I'm also suffering. On the one hand, because my position is mostly in the manufacturing industry. Although my position is 80%, the decline of products is no less than that of the index, which is suffering; on the other hand, I still maintain 80% of my position, and I'm not full or in a hurry. With my position, I just don't feel that I have the bottom line thinking of constantly increasing my position." In Zhang Jun's view, with the Shanghai index falling below 3000 points today, if the subsequent stock market continues to decline, there will be the idea of gradually increasing positions.
"We have products newly established at the end of last year. Due to the relatively thin safety pad of the products, in order to avoid reaching the stop loss line, we do have the behavior of passive position reduction." Yihu investment told the financial associated press that the product has set a 0.8 net value stop loss line. On the whole, the recent stock position of the company's products is less than 30%.
Another 10 billion private placement said that since the company's products did not touch the early warning and stop loss, there was no passive position reduction. "From the situation of our company, customers are also more rational when the market is down. Therefore, the redemption of products in the near future is good."
The fund manager of a private placement of small and medium-sized stocks admitted that at present, the company's products have not been passively reduced, and with the withdrawal of product net value during the year, the stock position has fallen to about 60%. However, there is no clear view on the main line of the future market. "I just think the market is oversold, but I don't know when to stop falling.
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From the perspective of market operation pattern, Yihu investment believes that only a few days of extreme sharp decline have obviously felt the pressure of forced passive position reduction in the adjustment since the beginning of the year. "It is more from the lack of confidence and expectation caused by the uncertain factors of the internal and external environment. Due to the lack of main line logic in the market, the institutional game superposition chip structure is too poor, and the funds are in the field, but they are obviously not active enough."
For today's market, some private placement also had certain expectations before. In the view of Yihu investment, in extreme market situations, timely transmission of the manager's market view is the first step to serve customers well. "Through the fund follow-up investment of the manager, we can strengthen the confidence of investors, show the attitude of the manager in line with the interests of customers, and avoid the impact of net value caused by fee withdrawal."
They believe that private placement managers can also take measures such as closing the market, suspending the issuance of new products and making every effort to repair the net value of old products. The most important thing is to give investors confidence and reasonable expectations on the premise of gaining customers' trust.
"double line" setting or adjustment space
Although the setting of early warning line and stop loss line can control the maximum loss of investors within a certain range, in the market adjustment, the setting of "double line" will make fund managers passively reduce their positions, thus aggravating market fluctuations.
Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi investment fund under private placement paipai.com, said that the market continued to decline because the market has inherent operation rules and certain inertia in the trend. Monday's sharp decline was mainly due to external factors affecting market confidence. The rise of hawks in the Federal Reserve last week led to the sharp decline of US stocks on Friday night, which was transmitted to today's Asian market, and the whole peripheral stock market fell sharply. The multi-point spread of the epidemic in China has also raised concerns about economic growth. But the rapid release of this negative sentiment will help to find the bottom in the short term.
According to the chief research official Lei of Xingshi investment, the current market sentiment is in an extremely pessimistic state. In the face of many uncertainties, the market sentiment is pessimistic and is particularly sensitive to bad information. However, we need to see that the state of policy care is very strong, whether for the macro-economy or the capital market. In terms of macro economy, the central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development, and put forward 23 measures from three aspects: supporting the relief of distressed subjects, unblocking the national economic cycle and promoting the development of foreign trade and exports. In terms of the capital market, on April 22, the CSRC stressed that "we should respond to market concerns in a timely manner, guide market expectations, stimulate market vitality and potential, further improve market resilience and promote the stable and healthy operation of the capital market". From a medium-term perspective, it may be the worst stage of the macro environment and market sentiment.
Further, Xia Fengguang stressed that although the market is worried about different things in each bear market, the policy plays a role every time, and there has never been an exception. After the end of the policy, there will be a market end soon. This stage is the best time to allocate stock assets. Because policies tend to be reverse regulated. When strict regulation is introduced, the market is often in a high cycle and in a foam stage. When the policy is introduced, it is often the market is in low cycle and in a panic period, which is exactly in line with the market cycle. At the same time, the direction of monetary and fiscal policy is also the core driver of the operation of macroeconomic cycle, so the policy bottom, economic bottom and market bottom are inseparable.
Therefore, some people in the industry said that at least for now, the necessity of passive meat cutting caused by early warning line and stop loss line is actually small at the current stage. Further, after passive position reduction, private equity fund managers may also lose the market in the future rebound, affecting the repair of net worth. Lowering the early warning line and stop loss line will reduce the impact on the market in the short term.
It is worth mentioning that at present, the private placement products under pressure of "double line" mainly focus on the secondary new products established at the high point last year, and the "double line" sets higher subjective and quantitative long products. From the performance of the average yield of private equity funds with different strategies in the first quarter, the data show that except for the average yield of management futures strategy and bond strategy, the average yield of arbitrage strategy, market neutrality, multi strategy, portfolio fund, macro strategy and stock bulls are negative. Among them, the range of arbitrage strategy and market neutral pullback is small; The average rate of return of portfolio funds and macro strategies is lower than - 6%; Stock bulls are less than - 9%.
This means that if the relevant strategic products set a higher warning line and stop loss line, they are more willing to reduce the "double line" in the decline of net value in the first quarter.
However, even if private placement management needs to reduce the "double line", it also needs to fully communicate with customers and understand their wishes. Yihu investment said that customers willing to reduce their risk appetite are generally high. Moderately reducing the stop loss line can alleviate the constraints of position restrictions on managers, and give managers more flexibility in operation, so as to better and faster get out of the trough and complete net worth repair.
\u3000\u3000 "These customers are roughly divided into two groups: one is game customers, which means liquidation and departure in disguise, and choose to stay in the market in order to avoid losses becoming irreversible losses; the other is rational customers, who choose to give greater support to the manager based on their trust in the manager's ability and the recognition of the past bull and bear's ability to repair through net worth, superimposed on their rational judgment that the current market risk is gradually cleared Operation space. " On the contrary, the main reason why customers are unwilling to cooperate with the reduction of stop loss line is risk preference. They lack confidence in managers and the market, and they are afraid of causing greater losses under extreme risks.
